/+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+\ | | \ MEGAMAN BATTLE NETWORK 3 / / BATTLE MATH FAQ \ | | \+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+/ +--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+\ | I. Table of Contents { +--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+/ I. Table of Contents II. Preface III. Terminology IV. NaviCust Setups i. Introduction ii. Three Chip Draw iii. Four Chip Draw iv. Five Chip Draw v. Six Chip Draw vi. Seven Chip Draw vii. Eight Chip Draw viii. Nine Chip Draw ix. Ten Chip Draw V. The Math i. The Setup (as it concerns FastGauge vs. FullCust) ii. Chip Draw Statistics a. Three Chip Draw b. Four Chip Draw c. Five Chip Draw d. Six Chip Draw e. Seven Chip Draw f. Eight Chip Draw g. Nine Chip Draw h. Ten Chip Draw iii. Four Chip Set a. Three Chip Draw b. Four Chip Draw c. Five Chip Draw d. Six Chip Draw e. Seven Chip Draw f. Eight Chip Draw g. Nine Chip Draw h. Ten Chip Draw iv. Three Chip Set a. Three Chip Draw b. Four Chip Draw c. Five Chip Draw d. Six Chip Draw e. Seven Chip Draw f. Eight Chip Draw g. Nine Chip Draw h. Ten Chip Draw v. Two Chip Set a. Three Chip Draw b. Four Chip Draw c. Five Chip Draw d. Six Chip Draw e. Seven Chip Draw f. Eight Chip Draw g. Nine Chip Draw h. Ten Chip Draw vi. One Chip Set a. Three Chip Draw b. Four Chip Draw c. Five Chip Draw d. Six Chip Draw e. Seven Chip Draw f. Eight Chip Draw g. Nine Chip Draw h. Ten Chip Draw vii. Special Sets a. EvilCut/BodyGard/PoisPhar b. DeuxHero/2xHero c. GutShoot d. Zeta-PAs e. PrixPowr f. ElemSwrd g. MomQuake h. BigHeart i. MstrStyl VI. Atk+ Chips VII. The ADD Function VIII. What about FolderBak? IX. Sweet Spotting X. Statistical Analysis i. Raw Numbers ii. Analysis XI. Contact Information XII. Credits +--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+\ | II. Preface { +--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+/ Well, I decided to write this FAQ because I wanted to know whether FastGauge or FullCustom was better head to head. As I suspected, it was a matter of preference. Still, while doing the math for the head-to-head matchup, I came into contact with a lot of other interesting information on game mechanics. The probabilties of pulling combos and program advances. The odds of getting a chip in a given situation. Information on chip flow. Overall, it has made me a much better player. No longer do I have to rely on my gut instinct to know what to do with a folder, I can actually know the numbers behind it. Doing so also allows me to pick up new folders faster and optimizes my playing style. >>IF YOU ONLY READ ONE SECTION, MAKE IT STATISTICAL ANALYSIS In the Statistical Analysis section, I'll lay out what the 40kb of math means in simple terms. Reading those few paragraphs should greatly improve your game. If you're concerned with any specifics beyond this, go into the Special Sets section or whatever else may interest you. The rest of this FAQ is for whoever is interested in the actual math. +--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+\ | III. Terminology { +--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+/ Draw - How many chips you see on the custom screen. Set - How many of each chip in a folder you have. Sweet Spotting - The number of chips at which you have a 70%+ chance of drawing a given combo (see section IX for more). +--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+\ | IV. NaviCust Setups { +--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+/ i. Introduction This section details some of the best setups for each chip draw, from three through ten. If you want to learn more about NaviCust and possible setups check the zidanet129's Navi Customizer Guide or the NetBattle Strategy Guide. If you're wondering how you can possibly get a three chip draw, it's quite simple. There are several EXCodes that, while giving you a bonus, also take away from your Custom Screen draw. Here they are: Code Function Glitch AWE3ETSW HP +400 Custom -1 3MZNBXH1 HP +450 Custom -1 2YTIWOAM HP +500 Custom -1 O3IUTNWQ HP +550 Custom -1 SKDSHUEO Break Charge Custom -1 3DIVNEIQ Mega Folder2 Custom -1 SK13EO1M Reflect Custom -1 L3KJGUEO Kiwarimi Magic Custom -1 ZN3UDOIQ AirShoes Custom -1 ZMJ1IGIE HP +600 Custom -2 SRUEIT3A HP +650 Custom -2 SI1IEMGO Break Buster Custom -2 XBCJF2RI FstGauge Custom -2 Also, using DarkLiscence automatically gives you Custom -1. Obviously you can go ahead and use Custom style to boost a six to a seven or an eight to a nine, but I'm not going to repeat set-ups in different sections to do so. If you're reading this you should be smart enough to figure that out anyhow. Also, I'm not going to go into the Custom glitch here for two reasons. It's irrelevant, and it's cheap. Here's a legend for each NaviCust Setup: 1 - Custom1 2 - Custom2 H - HubBatch S - SetGreen/SetIce B - BugStopper F - FastGauge _ - Charge+1/Rapid+1/Empty/Whatever you can fit U - Rush M - BusterMax P - HP+200 R - Reflect T - UnderSht G - Tango These setups are by no means the best of their kind. They're just examples to give you a general idea of how something how or might look. For more information on NaviCust setups, check out the NetBattle Strategy Guide and the Renowned Folder FAQ. ii. Three Chip Draw [_][_][P][P][P] [R][R][R][P][P] [T][T][R][_][U] [P][P][R][_][_] [P][P][P][_][_] Style: Any Non-Custom EXCode: SRUEIT3A (HP +650) iii. Four Chip Draw [_][_][B][B][B] [_][R][R][R][B] [H][U][H][R][B] [H][H][H][R][B] [H][H][H][_][_] Style: Any Non-Custom EXCode: XBCJF2RI (FastGauge) iv. Five Chip Draw [B][B][B][E][E] [B][_][_][_][E] [B][H][H][H][E] [B][H][H][E][E] [_][H][H][H][_] Style: Any EXCode: Any v. Six Chip Draw [_][B][B][B][B] [_][_][_][_][B] [H][H][H][M][B] [H][H][M][M][M] [H][H][H][M][_] Style: Any EXCode: Any vi. Seven Chip Draw [_][B][B][B][B] [_][_][_][_][B] [H][U][H][1][B] [H][H][H][1][_] [H][H][H][1][1] Style: Any EXCode: Any vii. Eight Chip Draw [_][H][H][H][_] [_][H][H][G][G] [2][H][H][H][G] [2][2][_][_][G] [2][2][2][G][G] Style: Any EXCode: Any viii. Nine Chip Draw [_][2][2][2][F] [_][_][2][2][F] [H][U][H][2][F] [H][H][H][_][F] [H][H][H][F][F] Style: Any EXCode: Error Code for Custom2 ix. Ten Chip Draw [C][2][2][2][F] [C][C][2][2][F] [2][S][S][2][F] [2][2][S][S][F] [2][2][2][F][F] Style: Custom EXCode: JHGIUTOP/ALSK3W2R (Error Code for SetGreen/Ice) +--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+\ | V. The Math { +--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+/ i. The Setup Since getting the chip you need is far too easy and impractical to calculate, we’ll assume, for all intensive purposes, that you’re looking for a three-part program advance or combo. Since it’s difficult to get confused and has easily definable parts, we’ll work with HyperRat. Firstly, a few things need to be established: Any given chip is 1/30, or 3.33% of the folder. If you’ve got a set of four: 4/30 = 13.33% A set of three: 3/30 = 10.00%% A set of two: 2/30 = 6.67% This is important, and you’ll see why. The way the math works is that you take the odds of drawing the chip as your first chip, then the odds of getting it as your second chip, then the odds of it as your third, et cetera. Here are the premises we’re working with in all of the following: 1. You have a preset chip. 2. That chip is either FastGauge or FullCustom 3. For the purposes of argument, we’re assuming that when we use FullCust, FastGauge is not in the folder. 4. We’re assuming that when FullCustom is preset, FastGauge is not in the folder. \\The formula to be used is as follows: The Odds of Getting a Ratton1 x The Odds of Getting a Ratton2 x The Odds of Getting a Ratton3 Ratton1: 100% - [the odds of not getting it as your first chip x the odds of not getting it as your second chip x the odds of not getting it as your third chip, and so on for the number of chips in your custom screen] Ratton2: 100% - [the odds of not getting it as your second chip x the odds of not getting it as your third chip, and so on for the number of chips in your custom screen] Ratton3: 100% - [the odds of not getting it as your third chip x the odds of not getting it as your fourth chip, and so on for the number of chips in your custom screen] *Where the odds of getting a given chip are:(the number of chips of that type in your folder)/{Number of chips in folder - [the number of chips in your custom screen (the first would be 29, second 28, etc.) – 1 (for the preset chip)]} ii. Chip Draw Statistics See this chart to see how many chips each of the following selections will see: a. Three Chip Draw Seconds FullCust FastGauge 0 2 2 1 5 2 4 5 5 8 8 8 12 8 11 16 11 14 20 11 17 24 14 20 28 14 24 32 17 27 * - The FullCust Change to turn two actually occurs within a tenth of a second, but it change is more notable on the graph when placed at one second. ** - The graph starts at seven because I'm not counting the preset chip. The graph should cap at 30 but when it hits 29 I'm posting 30 to symbolize that all the chips had been seen. Or see the following graph: http://server6.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-ThreeChipDraw.JPG -The blue line is the FullCust line -The pink line is the FastGauge line Playing with three chips is essentially useless you're intentionally inhibitng yourself for one reason or another (as a challenge). You're never going to get a program advance, especially if you're only dumping one chip a turn, not all three. With so few chips, you're much better off using FastGauge. b. Four Chip Draw Seconds FullCust FastGauge 0 3 3 1 7 3 4 7 7 8 11 11 12 11 15 16 15 19 20 15 23 24 19 27 28 19 30 32 23 30 Or see the following graph: http://server6.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-FourChipDraw.JPG -The blue line is the FullCust line -The pink line is the FastGauge line Again, with such a low chip count you're better off with Fast Gauge. The chips match up at seven in the second round, so it's much more beneficial to stick with FastGauge. c. Five Chip Draw Seconds FullCust FastGauge 0 4 4 1 9 4 4 9 9 8 14 14 12 14 19 16 19 24 20 19 30 24 24 30 28 24 30 32 30 30 Or see the following graph: http://server6.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-FiveChipDraw.JPG -The blue line is the FullCust line -The pink line is the FastGauge line With a five chip set the odds of getting a three chip combo are still dismally low, so you're still better off with FastGauge. d. Six Chip Draw Seconds FullCust FastGauge 0 5 5 1 11 5 4 11 11 8 16 16 12 16 21 16 21 26 20 21 30 24 26 30 28 26 30 32 30 30 Or see the following graph: http://server6.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-SixChipDraw.JPG -The blue line is the FullCust line -The pink line is the FastGauge line Here the chips match up at seventeen, and the same general trends are seen. This setup is much more powerful than the previous because it sweetspots once you FullCust. Here the advantage of FullCust over FastGauge become much more obvious for three chip combo folders. e. Seven Chip Draw Seconds FullCust FastGauge 0 6 6 1 11 6 4 11 11 8 16 16 12 16 21 16 21 26 20 21 30 24 26 30 28 26 30 32 30 30 Or see the following graph: http://server6.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-SevenChipDraw.JPG -The blue line is the FullCust line -The pink line is the FastGauge line A few trends appear when we look at the graph. The FastGauge line piques more quickly but the FastGauge brings you a more steady flow of chips. Note that the number of chips you’ve seen with each matches up at 16 chips, or just over half the folder. The thing that has to be considered is that at a certain point you should have your three-part program advance. At a certain point you have hit a “sweet spot” in which you’re almost guaranteed to have it. This happens to be at twelve chips. With the seven chip set you’re left at a 66% (or two thirds) chance to have that after using FullCustom. A folder actually “sweet spots” a three part combo at 72% (twelve chips). This set can’t achieve that until turn three. More on sweet spotting in section IX. f. Eight Chip Draw Seconds FullCust FastGauge 0 7 7 1 12 7 4 12 12 8 17 17 12 17 22 16 22 27 20 22 30 24 27 30 28 27 30 32 30 30 Or see the following graph: http://server6.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-EightChipDraw.JPG -The blue line is the FullCust line -The pink line is the FastGauge line Here the chips match up at seventeen, and the same general trends are seen. This setup is much more powerful than the previous because it sweetspots once you FullCust. Here the advantage of FullCust over FastGauge become much more obvious for three chip combo folders. g. Nine Chip Draw Seconds FullCust FastGauge 0 8 8 1 13 8 4 13 13 8 18 18 12 18 23 16 23 28 20 23 30 24 28 30 28 28 30 32 30 30 Or see the following graph: http://server6.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-NineChipDraw.JPG -The blue line is the FullCust line -The pink line is the FastGauge line This setup hits the sweet spot for four chip program advances after a first round FullCustom, and matches up with FastGauge at 18 chips. h. Ten Chip Draw Seconds FullCust FastGauge 0 9 9 1 14 9 4 14 14 8 19 19 12 19 24 16 24 30 20 24 30 24 30 30 28 30 30 32 30 30 Or see the following graph: http://server6.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-TenChipDraw.JPG -The blue line is the FullCust line -The pink line is the FastGauge line Playing with the full ten chips provides a distinct advantage, as you see all of your chips a full turn earlier (note that 29 actually equates to 30, since we’re not accounting for the preset chip). iii. Four Chip Set \\A four chip set means that you have four of each part of the program advance or combo that you're waiting for. Here's the numbers for a four chip draw so that I don't have to repeat them in every section: Chip one is the preset chip (FullCustom or FastGauge) Chance chip two is not a Ratton1: 25/29 Chance chip three is not a Ratton1: 24/28 Chance chip four is not a Ratton1: 23/27 Chance chip five is not a Ratton1: 22/26 Chance chip six is not a Ratton1: 21/25 Chance chip seven is not a Ratton1: 20/24 Chance chip eight is not a Ratton1: 19/23 Chance chip nine is not a Ratton1: 18/22 Chance chip ten is not a Ratton1: 17/21 Chip one is the preset chip (FullCustom or FastGauge) Chip two is a Ratton1 Chance chip three is not a Ratton2: 24/28 Chance chip four is not a Ratton2: 23/27 Chance chip five is not a Ratton2: 22/26 Chance chip six is not a Ratton2: 21/25 Chance chip seven is not a Ratton2: 20/24 Chance chip eight is not a Ratton2: 19/23 Chance chip nine is not a Ratton2: 18/22 Chance chip ten is not a Ratton2: 17/21 Chip one is the preset chip (FullCustom or FastGauge) Chip two is a Ratton1 Chip three is a Ratton2 Chance chip four is not a Ratton3: 23/27 Chance chip five is not a Ratton3: 22/26 Chance chip six is not a Ratton3: 21/25 Chance chip seven is not a Ratton3: 20/24 Chance chip eight is not a Ratton3: 19/23 Chance chip nine is not a Ratton3: 18/22 Chance chip ten is not a Ratton3: 17/21 a. Three Chip Draw 1 – [(25 * 24)/(29 * 28)] 1 – [600/812] 1 – [.7389] .2610 Chance of getting any given part: 26.10% Since the number of chips drawn is the same, if you look at it, the math figures out evenly for every chip, since the overlapping chips cancel out. Do the math for yourself if you want to see, but I’m not going to be bothered to do so here. .2610^3 = .0177 Chance of getting the combo: 1.77% Note that it's impossible to get the entire program advance in the opening draw with a preset chip, but these are the odds you'd get it without one. b. Four Chip Draw 1 – [(25 * 24 * 23)/(29 * 28 * 27)] 1 – [13800/21924] 1 – [.6294] .3705 Chance of getting any given part: 37.05% .3705^3 = .0508 Chance of getting the combo: 5.08% c. Five Chip Draw 1 – [(25 * 24 * 23 * 22)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26)] 1 – [303600/570024] 1 – [.5326] .4673 Chance of getting any given part: 46.73% .4673^3 = .1021 Chance of getting the combo: 10.21% d. Six Chip Draw 1 – [(25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25)] 1 – [(24 * 23 * 22 * 21)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26)] 1 – [255024/570024] 1 – [.4473] .5526 Chance of getting any given part: 55.26% .5526^3 = .1687 Chance of getting the combo: 16.87% e. Seven Chip Draw 1 – [(25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24)] 1 – [(23 * 22 * 21 * 20)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26)] 1 – [212520/570024] 1 – [.3728] .6271 Chance of getting any given part: 62.71% .6271^3 = .2466 Chance of getting the combo: 24.66% f. Eight Chip Draw 1 – [(25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20 * 19)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23)] 1 – [(22 * 21 * 20 * 19)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26)] 1 – [175560/570024] 1 – [.3079] .6920 Chance of getting any given part: 69.20% .6920^3 = .3313 Chance of getting the combo: 33.13% g. Nine Chip Draw 1 – [(25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20 * 19 * 18)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22)] 1 – [(21 * 20 * 19 * 18)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26)] 1 – [143640/570024] 1 – [.2519] .7480 Chance of getting any given part: 74.80% .7480^3 = .4185 Chance of getting the combo: 41.85% h. Ten Chip Draw 1 – [(25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20 * 19 * 18 * 17)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21)] 1 – [(20 * 19 * 18 * 17)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26)] 1 – [116280/570024] 1 – [.2039] .7960 Chance of getting any given part: 79.60% .7960^3 = .5043 Chance of getting the combo: 50.43% iv. Three Chip Set Here's the numbers for a three chip draw so that I don't have to repeat them in every section: Chip one is the preset chip (FullCustom or FastGauge) Chance chip two is not a Ratton1: 26/29 Chance chip three is not a Ratton1: 25/28 Chance chip four is not a Ratton1: 24/27 Chance chip five is not a Ratton1: 23/26 Chance chip six is not a Ratton1: 22/25 Chance chip seven is not a Ratton1: 21/24 Chance chip eight is not a Ratton1: 20/23 Chance chip nine is not a Ratton1: 19/22 Chance chip ten is not a Ratton1: 18/21 Chip one is the preset chip (FullCustom or FastGauge) Chip two is a Ratton1 Chance chip three is not a Ratton2: 25/28 Chance chip four is not a Ratton2: 24/27 Chance chip five is not a Ratton2: 23/26 Chance chip six is not a Ratton2: 22/25 Chance chip seven is not a Ratton2: 21/24 Chance chip eight is not a Ratton2: 20/23 Chance chip nine is not a Ratton2: 19/22 Chance chip ten is not a Ratton2: 18/21 Chip one is the preset chip (FullCustom or FastGauge) Chip two is a Ratton1 Chip three is a Ratton2 Chance chip four is not a Ratton3: 24/27 Chance chip five is not a Ratton3: 23/26 Chance chip six is not a Ratton3: 22/25 Chance chip seven is not a Ratton3: 21/24 Chance chip eight is not a Ratton3: 20/23 Chance chip nine is not a Ratton3: 19/22 Chance chip ten is not a Ratton3: 18/21 a. Three Chip Draw 1 – [(26 * 25)/(29 * 28)] 1 – [650/812] 1 – [.8004] .1995 Chance of getting any given part: 19.95% .1995^3 = .0079 Chance of getting the combo: 0.79% Note that it's impossible to get the entire program advance in the opening draw with a preset chip, but these are the odds you'd get it without one. b. Four Chip Draw 1 – [(26 * 25 * 24)/(29 * 28 * 27)] 1 – [15600/21924] 1 – [.7115] .2884 Chance of getting any given part: 28.84% .2884^3 = .0240 Chance of getting the combo: 2.40% c. Five Chip Draw 1 – [(26 * 25 * 24 * 23)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26)] 1 – [(25 * 24 * 23)/(29 * 28 * 27)] 1 – [13800/21924] 1 – [.6294] .3705 Chance of getting any given part: 37.05% .3705^3 = .0508 Chance of getting the combo: 5.08% d. Six Chip Draw 1 – [(26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25)] 1 – [(24 * 23 * 22)/(29 * 28 * 27)] 1 – [12144/21924] 1 – [.5539] .4460 Chance of getting any given part: 44.60% .4460^3 = .0887 Chance of getting the combo: 8.87% e. Seven Chip Draw 1 – [(26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24)] 1 – [(23 * 22 * 21)/(29 * 28 * 27)] 1 – [10626/21924] 1 – [.4846] .5153 Chance of getting any given part: 51.53% .5153^3 = .1368 Chance of getting the combo: 13.68% f. Eight Chip Draw 1 – [(26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23)] 1 – [(22 * 21 * 20)/(29 * 28 * 27)] 1 – [9240/21924] 1 – [.4214] .5785 Chance of getting any given part: 57.85% .5785^3 = .1936 Chance of getting the combo: 19.36% g. Nine Chip Draw 1 – [(26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20 * 19)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22)] 1 – [(21 * 20 * 19)/(29 * 28 * 27)] 1 – [7980/21924] 1 – [.3639] .6360 Chance of getting any given part: 63.60% .6360^3 = .3256 Chance of getting the combo: 25.72% h. Ten Chip Draw 1 – [(26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20 * 19 * 18)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21)] 1 – [(20 * 19 * 18)/(29 * 28 * 27)] 1 – [6840/21924] 1 – [.3118] .6880 Chance of getting any given part: 68.80% .6880^3 = .3256 Chance of getting the combo: 32.56% v. Two Chip Set The Two Chip Set numbers: Chip one is the preset chip (FullCustom or FastGauge) Chance chip two is not a Ratton1: 27/29 Chance chip three is not a Ratton1: 26/28 Chance chip four is not a Ratton1: 25/27 Chance chip five is not a Ratton1: 24/26 Chance chip six is not a Ratton1: 23/25 Chance chip seven is not a Ratton1: 22/24 Chance chip eight is not a Ratton1: 21/23 Chance chip nine is not a Ratton1: 20/22 Chance chip ten is not a Ratton1: 19/21 Chip one is the preset chip (FullCustom or FastGauge) Chip two is a Ratton1 Chance chip three is not a Ratton2: 26/28 Chance chip four is not a Ratton2: 25/27 Chance chip five is not a Ratton2: 24/26 Chance chip six is not a Ratton2: 23/25 Chance chip seven is not a Ratton2: 22/24 Chance chip eight is not a Ratton2: 21/23 Chance chip nine is not a Ratton2: 20/22 Chance chip ten is not a Ratton2: 19/21 Chip one is the preset chip (FullCustom or FastGauge) Chip two is a Ratton1 Chip three is a Ratton2 Chance chip four is not a Ratton3: 25/27 Chance chip five is not a Ratton3: 24/26 Chance chip six is not a Ratton3: 23/25 Chance chip seven is not a Ratton3: 22/24 Chance chip eight is not a Ratton3: 21/23 Chance chip nine is not a Ratton3: 20/22 Chance chip ten is not a Ratton3: 19/21 a. Three Chip Draw 1 – [(27 * 26)/(29 * 28)] 1 – [702/812] 1 – [.8645] .1354 Chance of getting any given part: 13.54% .1354^3 = .0024 Chance of getting the combo: 0.24% Note that it's impossible to get the entire program advance in the opening draw with a preset chip, but these are the odds you'd get it without one. b. Four Chip Draw 1 – [(27 * 26 * 25)/(29 * 28 * 27)] 1 – [(26 * 25)/(29 * 28)] 1 – [650/812] 1 – [.8004] .1995 Chance of getting any given part: 19.95% .1995^3 = .0079 Chance of getting the combo: 0.79% c. Five Chip Draw 1 – [(27 * 26 * 25 * 24)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26)] 1 – [(25 * 24)/(29 * 28)] 1 – [600/812] 1 – [.7389] .2610 Chance of getting any given part: 26.10% .2610^3 = .0177 Chance of getting the combo: 1.77% d. Six Chip Draw 1 – [(27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25)] 1 – [(24 * 23)/(29 * 28)] 1 – [552/812] 1 – [.6798] .3201 Chance of getting any given part: 32.01% .3201^3 = .0328 Chance of getting the combo: 3.28% e. Seven Chip Draw 1 – [(27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24)] 1 – [(23 * 22)/(29 * 28)] 1 – [506/812] 1 – [.6231] .3768 Chance of getting any given part: 37.68% .3768^3 = .0535 Chance of getting the combo: 5.35% f. Eight Chip Draw 1 – [(27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23)] 1 – [(22 * 21)/(29 * 28)] 1 – [462/812] 1 – [.5689] .4310 Chance of getting any given part: 43.10% .4310^3 = .0800 Chance of getting the combo: 8.00% g. Nine Chip Draw 1 – [(27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22)] 1 – [(21 * 20)/(29 * 28)] 1 – [420/812] 1 – [.5712] .4827 Chance of getting any given part: 48.27% .4827^3 = .1125 Chance of getting the combo: 11.25% h. Ten Chip Draw 1 – [(27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20 * 19)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21)] 1 – [(20 * 19)/(29 * 28)] 1 – [380/812] 1 – [.4679] .5320 Chance of getting any given part: 53.20% .5320^3 = .1505 Chance of getting the combo: 15.05% vi. One Chip Set The One Chip Set numbers: Chip one is the preset chip (FullCustom or FastGauge) Chance chip two is not a Ratton1: 28/29 Chance chip three is not a Ratton1: 27/28 Chance chip four is not a Ratton1: 26/27 Chance chip five is not a Ratton1: 25/26 Chance chip six is not a Ratton1: 24/25 Chance chip seven is not a Ratton1: 23/24 Chance chip eight is not a Ratton1: 22/23 Chance chip nine is not a Ratton1: 21/22 Chance chip ten is not a Ratton1: 20/21 Chip one is the preset chip (FullCustom or FastGauge) Chip two is a Ratton1 Chance chip three is not a Ratton2: 27/28 Chance chip four is not a Ratton2: 26/27 Chance chip five is not a Ratton2: 25/26 Chance chip six is not a Ratton2: 24/25 Chance chip seven is not a Ratton2: 23/24 Chance chip eight is not a Ratton2: 22/23 Chance chip nine is not a Ratton2: 21/22 Chance chip ten is not a Ratton2: 20/21 Chip one is the preset chip (FullCustom or FastGauge) Chip two is a Ratton1 Chip three is a Ratton2 Chance chip four is not a Ratton3: 26/27 Chance chip five is not a Ratton3: 25/26 Chance chip six is not a Ratton3: 24/25 Chance chip seven is not a Ratton3: 23/24 Chance chip eight is not a Ratton3: 22/23 Chance chip nine is not a Ratton3: 21/22 Chance chip ten is not a Ratton3: 20/21 a. Three Chip Draw 1 – [(27)/(29)] 1 – [.9310] .0689 Chance of getting any given part: 6.89% .1354^3 = .0003 Chance of getting the combo: 0.03% Note that it's impossible to get the entire program advance in the opening draw with a preset chip, but these are the odds you'd get it without one. b. Four Chip Draw 1 – [(28 * 27 * 26)/(29 * 28 * 27)] 1 – [(26)/(29)] 1 – [.8965] .1034 Chance of getting any given part: 10.34% .1034^3 = .0011 Chance of getting the combo: 0.11% c. Five Chip Draw 1 – [(28 * 27 * 26 * 25)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26)] 1 – [(25)/(29)] 1 – [.8620] .1379 Chance of getting any given part: 13.79% .1379^3 = .0026 Chance of getting the combo: 0.26% d. Six Chip Draw 1 – [(28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25)] 1 – [(24)/(29)] 1 – [.8275] .1724 Chance of getting any given part: 17.24% .1724^3 = .0051 Chance of getting the combo: 0.51% e. Seven Chip Draw 1 – [(28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24)] 1 – [(23)/(29)] 1 – [.7931] .2068 Chance of getting any given part: 20.68% .2068^3 = .0088 Chance of getting the combo: 0.88% f. Eight Chip Draw 1 – [(28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23)] 1 – [(22)/(29)] 1 – [.7586] .2413 Chance of getting any given part: 24.13% .2413^3 = .0140 Chance of getting the combo: 1.40% g. Nine Chip Draw 1 – [(28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22)] 1 – [(21)/(29)] 1 – [.7241] .2758 Chance of getting any given part: 27.58% .2758^3 = .0209 Chance of getting the combo: 2.09% h. Ten Chip Draw 1 – [(28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21)] 1 – [(20)/(29)] 1 – [.6896] .3103 Chance of getting any given part: 31.03% .3103^3 = .0298 Chance of getting the combo: 2.98% vii. Special Sets Special Sets are groups of Program advances where you don't have three of a chip in simple sequence (such as BubSpread, LifeSword, and HeatSpread). In this section, Set# means a set of that many chips in a folder, so that the math is more readily understandable. Also, "odds" should be understood as "the odds of getting." Don't expect as much math in this section, as I can simply pull the numbers from the earlier sections to support this. Also, I'm operating under the assumption that you're working with the most possible parts of any given Program Advance in this section. On a final note, I'll only be doing this for chip draws of five and greater, as the earlier sections demonstrate that anyhting else is absolutely impractical. a. EvilCut/BodyGard/PoisPhar PoisonPharoh: PoisonMask A + PoisonFace A + Anubis A EvilCut: StepSwrd P + HeroSword P + StepCross P BodyGuard: AntiDamage M + AntiNavi M + Muramasa M The Equation: Odds Set4 x Odds Set4 x Odds Set1 For a draw of five: .4673 x .4673 x .1379 = .0301 (3.01%) For a draw of six: .5526 x .5526 x .1724 = .0526 (5.26%) For a draw of seven: .6271 x .6271 x .2068 = .0813 (8.13%) For a draw of eight: .6920 x .6920 x .2413 = .1155 (11.55%) For a draw of nine: .7480 x .7480 x .2758 = .1543 (15.43%) For a draw of ten: .7960 x .7960 x .3103 = .1966 (19.66%) b. DeuxHero/2xHero DeuxHero: CustomSword B + VariableSword B + ProtoMan(any version) B 2xHero: Slasher B + CustomSword B + VariableSword B + ProtoMan(any version) B In this section I'll detail the odds of getting the program advance with five versions of ProtoMan and how many slashers you should have in your folder for it to run smoothly. If you want to know how the odds are with only four versions of ProtoMan, the math is identical to the ElemSwrd Section. The odds of a set of five are as follows... For a five chip draw: 55.26% For a six chip draw: 64.20% For a seven chip draw: 71.66% For an eight chip draw: 77.82% For a nine chip draw: 82.86% For a ten chip draw: 86.94% The Equation(1): Odds Set4 x Odds Set4 x Odds Set5 For a draw of five: .4673 x .4673 x .5526 = .1206 (12.06%) For a draw of six: .5526 x .5526 x .6420 = .1960 (19.60%) For a draw of seven: .6271 x .6271 x .7166 = .2818 (28.18%) For a draw of eight: .6920 x .6920 x .7782 = .3726 (37.26%) For a draw of nine: .7480 x .7480 x .8286 = .4636 (46.36%) For a draw of ten: .7960 x .7960 x .8694 = .5508 (55.08%) The Equation(2): Odds Set4 x Odds Set4 x Odds Set4 x Odds Set 5 For a draw of five: .4673 x .4673 x .4673 x .5526 = .0563 (5.63%) For a draw of six: .5526 x .5526 x .5526 x .6420 = .1083 (10.83%) For a draw of seven: .6271 x .6271 x .6271 x .7166 = .1767 (17.67%) For a draw of eight: .6920 x .6920 x .6920 x .7782 = .2578 (25.78%) For a draw of nine: .7480 x .7480 x .7480 x .8286 = .3467 (34.67%) For a draw of ten: .7960 x .7960 x .7960 x .8694 = .4384 (43.84%) If you want to use Slashers in a folder with DeuxHero to make 2xHero, I actually recommend not using a full set of four. Usually, in a NetBattle, the 900 damage from a 2xHero will not knock off an opponent but that of a 2xHero is sure to. It's not safe hedging your bets on just DeuxHero because two aren't assured to knock off your opponent, especially against a folder with some defense. While the specific parts of the combo are powerful and may make up for this, adding slashers does not normally help your case in that respect. I suggest playing with only two or three Slashers. That way, they won't clutter your custom draw when you need to spend a turn setting up defenses or waiting for the combo, and you can have other chips that are more useful as individual chips go. Also, that way you won't feel guilty waiting for NOT waiting for a Slasher, but if you need one it should turn up. c. GutShoot GutsShoot: Guard * + DashAttack G/* + GutsMan (any version) The odds of getting this Program Advance with only four GutsMan chips is identical to any three part program advance. See section ii or whatever other section may apply. The Equation: Odds Set4 x Odds Set4 x Odds Set5 For a draw of five: .4673 x .4673 x .5526 = .1206 (12.06%) For a draw of six: .5526 x .5526 x .6420 = .1960 (19.60%) For a draw of seven: .6271 x .6271 x .7166 = .2818 (28.18%) For a draw of eight: .6920 x .6920 x .7782 = .3726 (37.26%) For a draw of nine: .7480 x .7480 x .8286 = .4636 (46.36%) For a draw of ten: .7960 x .7960 x .8694 = .5508 (55.08%) d. Zeta-PAs Z-Cannon1: Cannon A + Cannon B + Cannon C Cannon B + Cannon C + Cannon D Cannon C + Cannon D + Cannon E Z-Cannon2: HiCannon H + HiCannon J + HiCannon L HiCannon J + HiCannon L + HiCannon K HiCannon J + HiCannon K + HiCannon L Z-Cannon3: M-Cannon O + M-Cannon P + M-Cannon Q M-Cannon P + M-Cannon Q + M-Cannon R M-Cannon Q + M-Cannon R + M-Cannon S Z-Punch: GutsPunch B + GutsPunch C + GutsPunch D GutsPunch C + GutsPunch D + GutsPunch E GutsPunch D + GutsPunch E + GutsPunch F Z-Straight: GutsStraight O + GutsStraight P + GutsStraight Q GutsStraight P + GutsStraight Q + GutsStraight R GutsStraight Q + GutsStraight R + GutsStraight S Z-Impact: GutsImpact G + GutsImpact H + GutsImpact I GutsImpact H + GutsImpact I + GutsImpact J GutsImpact I + GutsImpact J + GutsImpact K Z-Variable: VariableSword B + VariableSword C + VariableSword D VariableSword C + VariableSword D + VariableSword E VariableSword D + VariableSword E + VariableSword F Z-YoYo1: Yo-Yo1 C + Yo-Yo1 D + Yo-Yo1 E Yo-Yo1 D + Yo-Yo1 E + Yo-Yo1 F Yo-Yo1 E + Yo-Yo1 F + Yo-Yo1 G Z-YoYo2: Yo-Yo2 H + Yo-Yo2 I + Yo-Yo2 J Yo-Yo2 I + Yo-Yo2 J + Yo-Yo2 K Yo-Yo2 J + Yo-Yo2 K + Yo-Yo2 L Z-YoYo3: Yo-Yo3 M + Yo-Yo3 N + Yo-Yo3 O Yo-Yo3 N + Yo-Yo3 O + Yo-Yo3 P Yo-Yo3 O + Yo-Yo3 P + Yo-Yo3 Q Z-Step1: StepSword L + StepSword M + StepSword N StepSword M + StepSword N + StepSword O StepSword N + StepSword O + StepSword P Z-Step2: StepCross O + StepCross P + StepCross Q StepCross P + StepCross Q + StepCross R StepCross Q + StepCross R + StepCross S GigaCount: TimeBomb J + TimeBomb K + TimeBomb L TimeBomb K + TimeBomb L + TimeBomb M TimeBomb L + TimeBomb M + TimeBomb N I'm not including BubSpread and HeatSpread because they both have counterparts that are MUCH easier to construct and more popular. As you can see, there a quite a few Zeta program advances. However, these tend to be quite unpopular, as they require having four of a chip in your folder with three different codes. The logical way to use these, if you were to do so, would be to have two of one code and one of each of the others. The Equation: Odds Set2 x Odds Set1 x Odds Set1 For a draw of five: .2610 x .1379 x .1379 = .0049 (0.49%) For a draw of six: .3201 x .1724 x .1724 = .0095 (0.95%) For a draw of seven: .3768 x .2068 x .2068 = .0161 (1.61%) For a draw of eight: .4310 x .2413 x .2413 = .0250 (2.50%) For a draw of nine: .4827 x .2758 x .2758 = .0367 (3.67%) For a draw of ten: .5320 x .3103 x .3103 = .0512 (5.12%) \\A seemingly special case: H-Burst H-Burst: Spreader M + Spreader N + Spreader O Spreader N + Spreader O + Spreader P Spreader O + Spreader P + Spreader Q However, it is possible to acquire Spreader *s. Moreso if you play through multiple times, have multiple carts, or generous friends. Still, since only one of the codes in the program advance can be *, the odds remain the same as the rest of the Zeta Program Advances. e. PrixPowr PrixPower: Team1 * + Team2 * + KingManv5 K Team1 * + Team2 * + BowlManv5 B Team1 * + Team2 * + MistManv5 M Since it is possible to fit GigaFolder in the NaviCust, along with a Custom1 and a Custom2, I will also calculate this for two possible v5 Navi Chips up to ten possible chips. The Equation(1): Odds Set4 x Odds Set4 x Odds Set1 For a draw of five: .4673 x .4673 x .1379 = .0301 (3.01%) For a draw of six: .5526 x .5526 x .1724 = .0526 (5.26%) For a draw of seven: .6271 x .6271 x .2068 = .0813 (8.13%) For a draw of eight: .6920 x .6920 x .2413 = .1155 (11.55%) For a draw of nine: .7480 x .7480 x .2758 = .1543 (15.43%) For a draw of ten: .7960 x .7960 x .3103 = .1966 (19.66%) The Equation(2): Odds Set4 x Odds Set4 x Odds Set2 For a draw of five: .4673 x .4673 x .2610 = .0569 (5.69%) For a draw of six: .5526 x .5526 x .3201 = .0977 (9.77%) For a draw of seven: .6271 x .6271 x .3768 = .1481 (14.81%) For a draw of eight: .6920 x .6920 x .4310 = .2063 (20.63%) For a draw of nine: .7480 x .7480 x .4827 = .2700 (27.00%) For a draw of ten: .7960 x .7960 x .5320 = .3370 (33.70%) f. ElemSwrd This is a four part program advance. The odds are the same as the previous section but to the fourth power as opposed to the third. The Equation: Odds Set4 x Odds Set4 x Odds Set4 x Odds Set4 For a draw of five: .4673 x .4673 x .4673 x .4673 = .0476 (4.76%) For a draw of six: .5526 x .5526 x .5526 x .5526 = .0932 (9.32%) For a draw of seven: .6271 x .6271 x .6271 x .6271 = .1546 (15.46%) For a draw of eight: .6920 x .6920 x .6920 x .6920 = .2293 (22.93%) For a draw of nine: .7480 x .7480 x .7480 x .7480 = .3130 (31.30%) For a draw of ten: .7960 x .7960 x .7960 x .7960 = .4014 (40.14%) g. MomQuake MomQuake: RockCube * + RockCube * + GodStone S The Equation: Odds Set4 x Odds Set3 (One RockCube Gone) x Odds Set1 For a draw of five: .4673 x .3705 x .1379 = .0238 (2.38%) For a draw of six: .5526 x .4460 x .1724 = .0424 (4.24%) For a draw of seven: .6271 x .5153 x .2068 = .0668 (6.68%) For a draw of eight: .6920 x .5785 x .2413 = .0965 (9.65%) For a draw of nine: .7480 x .6360 x .2758= .1308 (13.08%) For a draw of ten: .7960 x .6880 x .3103 = .1699 (16.99%) h. BigHeart BigHeart: HolyPanel R + Recov300 R + Roll(any version) R Since there are only three versions of Roll this Program Advance needs it's own section. The Equation: Odds Set4 x Odds Set4 x Odds Set3 For a draw of five: .4673 x .4673 x .3705 = .0809 (8.09%) For a draw of six: .5526 x .5526 x .4460 = .1361 (13.61%) For a draw of seven: .6271 x .6271 x .5153 = .2026 (20.26%) For a draw of eight: .6920 x .6920 x .5785 = .2270 (22.70%) For a draw of nine: .7480 x .7480 x .6360 = .3558 (35.58%) For a draw of ten: .7960 x .7960 x .6880 = .4359 (43.59%) i. MstrStyl MasterStyle: Salamander * + Fountain * + Bolt * + GaiaBlade * The Equation: Odds Set1 x Odds Set1 x Odds Set1 x Odds Set1 This small section is to prove to the newbies everywhere that MasterStyle actually IS completely useless, as three of the four parts are chaff (all four if you haven't gotten a style yet) and it's nigh impossible to acquire all four parts. For a ten chip draw: .3103^4 = .0092 (0.92%) For a nine chip draw: .2758^4 = .0057 (0.57%) For an eight chip draw: .2413^4 = .0033 (0.33%) For a seven chip draw: .2068^4 = .0018 (0.18%) For a six chip draw: .1724^4 = .0008 (0.08%) For a five chip draw: .1379^4 = .0003 (0.03%) For a four chip draw: Impossible (with a Preset chip) For a three chip draw: Impossible As you can see, the odds of getting MasterStyle on an opening chip draw, even if it's a full ten chips, are still less than one percent. If you preset GaiaBlade and have a full ten chips, the odds are a whopping 2.98%. Still, with a full chip draw, those odds are dismal. In fewer than one out of every thirty-three battles you'll pull it out. +--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+\ | VI. Atk+ Chips { +--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+/ Coming Soon! To tell the truth, I'm not sure how I should go about doing the math for this part yet. I have an idea, but I need to really think it out. If you have any suggestions, feel free to drop me a line. You can find my information in the contacts section. +--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+\ | VII. The ADD Function { +--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+/ Looking back at the timing/chip flow section, it becomes clear that the alternative to using add (using the NaviCust space for Custom programs) is much more favorable. With ADD you lose a whole round and leave yourself completely defenseless. No specific math is really necessary, as logic and the figures above are a testament to that fact. +--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+\ | VIII. What about FolderBak? { +--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+/ The beauty of FolderBack is that, while most people believe that it completely debases any math, it only makes the math more relavent. When you use FolderBack, the odds of getting any given chip reset back to the original starting point that the math in this FAQ shows, according to whatever odds you began with. The knock here, though, as this applies to the FullCustom vs. FastGauge controversy, that FullCustom has the upper hand, as it is reusable. Still, any argument of this nature is disregarding the fact that once you use FolderBack, the FastGauge is still in effect. While true that it may be a dead chip in your draw (this is the stronger case) neither chip really is given the advantage due to the utilization of FolderBack. The odds of getting FolderBack are as follows: For a three chip draw (what's the point?): 6.89% For a four chip draw: 10.34% For a five chip draw: 13.79% For a six chip draw: 17.24% For a seven chip draw: 20.68% For an eight chip draw: 24.13% For a nine chip draw: 27.58% For a ten chip draw: 31.03% +--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+\ | IX. Sweet Spotting { +--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+/ A sweet spot is how many chips you must see before the odds of getting a program advance or combo becomes extremely highly probable. This mark happens to be past 70%. Two Chip Combos \\GaiaBlade + Mine; NOBeam + Field Obstacle; Plasma + Elec+30 1 – [(25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20 * 19 * 18 * 17 * 16)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20)] 1 – [(19 * 18 * 17 * 16)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26)] 1 – [93024/570024] 1 – [.1631] .8368 Chance of getting any given part: 83.68% .8368^2 = 70.02 Chance of getting the combo: 70.02% Sweet Spot: 10 Chips Three Chip Combos \\DeuxHero; EverCurse 1 – [(25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20 * 19 * 18 * 17 * 16 * 15 * 14)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20 * 19 * 18)] 1 – [(17 * 16 * 15 * 14)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26)] 1 – [57120/570024] 1 – [.1002] .8997 Chance of getting any given part: 89.97% .8368^3 = .7284 Chance of getting the combo: 72.84% Sweet Spot: 12 Chips Four Chip Combos \\FlashMan + HyperRat; PlantMan + EvilCut; 2xHero 1 – [(25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20 * 19 * 18 * 17 * 16 * 15 * 14 * 13)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20 * 19 * 18 * 17)] 1 – [(16 * 15 * 14 * 13)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26)] 1 – [43680/570024] 1 – [.0766] .9233 Chance of getting any given part: 92.33% .9233^4 = .7269 Chance of getting the combo: 72.69% Sweet Spot: 13 Chips Five Chip Combos \\GrassStage + Prism + HeatSpread 1 – [(25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20 * 19 * 18 * 17 * 16 * 15 * 14 * 13 * 12)/ (29 * 28 * 27 * 26 * 25 * 24 * 23 * 22 * 21 * 20 * 19 * 18 * 17 * 16 * 15)] 1 – [(15 * 14 * 13 * 12)/(29 * 28 * 27 * 26)] 1 – [32760/570024] 1 – [.0574] .9425 Chance of getting any given part: 94.25% .9425^5 = .7438 Chance of getting the combo: 74.38% Sweet Spot: 15 Chips +--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+\ | X. Statistical Analysis { +--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+/ All the raw numbers are included here so that you may reference them more easily while reading the statistical analysis. I've put them into tables and graphs, too. It makes the trends more readily apparent. i. Raw Numbers Chip Acquisiton Odds: Draw: Three Four Five Six Seven Eight Nine Ten ________ ________ ________ ________ ________ ________ ________ ________ | | | | | | | | | Set 1 | 6.89% | 10.34% | 13.79% | 17.24% | 20.68% | 24.13% | 27.58% | 31.03% | |________|________|________|________|________|________|________|________| | | | | | | | | | Set 2 | 13.54% | 19.95% | 26.10% | 32.01% | 37.68% | 43.10% | 48.27% | 53.20% | |________|________|________|________|________|________|________|________| | | | | | | | | | Set 3 | 19.95% | 28.84% | 37.05% | 44.60% | 51.53% | 57.85% | 63.60% | 69.80% | |________|________|________|________|________|________|________|________| | | | | | | | | | Set 4 | 26.10% | 37.05% | 46.73% | 55.26% | 62.71% | 69.20% | 74.80% | 79.60% | |________|________|________|________|________|________|________|________| In Graph Form: http://server5.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-ChipGet1.JPG Legend: Blue Line - Four Chip Draw Pink Line - Three Chip Draw Yellow Line - Two Chip Draw Light Blue Line - One Chip Draw Combo Acquisiton Odds: Draw: Three Four Five Six Seven Eight Nine Ten ________ ________ ________ ________ ________ ________ ________ ________ | | | | | | | | | Set 1 | N/A | 0.11% | 0.26% | 0.51% | 0.88% | 1.40% | 2.09% | 2.98% | |________|________|________|________|________|________|________|________| | | | | | | | | | Set 2 | N/A | 0.79% | 1.77% | 3.28% | 5.35% | 8.00% | 11.25% | 15.05% | |________|________|________|________|________|________|________|________| | | | | | | | | | Set 3 | N/A | 2.40% | 5.08% | 8.87% | 13.68% | 19.36% | 25.72% | 32.56% | |________|________|________|________|________|________|________|________| | | | | | | | | | Set 4 | N/A | 5.08% | 10.21% | 16.87% | 24.66% | 33.13% | 41.85% | 50.43% | |________|________|________|________|________|________|________|________| In Graph Form: http://server5.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-ComboGet1.JPG Legend: Blue Line - Four Chip Draw Pink Line - Three Chip Draw Yellow Line - Two Chip Draw Light Blue Line - One Chip Draw Sweet Spots: Two Chip Combos: 10 Three Chip Combos: 12 Four Chip Combos: 13 Five Chip Combos: 15 Chip Flow Graphs: Only the graphs are here. See the section itself for the charts and other notes. Three Chip Draw: http://server6.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-ThreeChipDraw.JPG Four Chip Draw: http://server6.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-FourChipDraw.JPG Five Chip Draw: http://server6.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-FiveChipDraw.JPG Six Chip Draw: http://server6.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-SixChipDraw.JPG Seven Chip Draw: http://server6.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-SevenChipDraw.JPG Eight Chip Draw: http://server6.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-EightChipDraw.JPG Nine Chip Draw: http://server6.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-NineChipDraw.JPG Ten Chip Draw: http://server6.uploadit.org/files/Malinhion-TenChipDraw.JPG Legend: Blue Line - FullCustom Pink Line - FastGauge ii. Statistical Analysis The basic idea of all this stuff is to get you to make educated choices as to how you should go about optimizing your folder and NaviCust, and how to do so in NetBattles as well. What you should keep and what you should toss out behind a FullCust. What you can count on to show up and what probably won't come. Obviously you're going to want to use a NaviCust setup that gets you the most bang for your buck. What you need to do is match up your NaviCust setup with whatever combo you use. The first thing to assure is that you sweet-spot your combo after using a FullCustom. Let's say you're working off a four chip combo. You need at least eight chips in your opening draw so that after dumping four behind a FullCust you'll sweet spot. Since you know you need an eight chip draw, you should find a setup that suits that eight chip draw. This way, in your extra space you can place other programs that will help in a NetBattle. Some prefer simply to have a full chip draw in the first place. If you can find a better setup that suits you that way, then more power to you. As far as FullCust vs. FastGauge goes, it's obviously better to use both. I bet you didn't need an FAQ to tell you that, did you? But, seriously, I recommend using FastGauge in your NaviCust and using FullCust as your regular chip. As far as which one you should use if you're forced to choose, it comes down to a matter of playing style. If your folder is slower and just works consistently each turn, I suggest FastGauge. However, if you're trying to knock out the opponent fast with a deadly combo, use FullCustom. Again, make sure you sweet spot after you do so. Get a general idea of the odds of pulling any chip at any time with your setup. This shouldn't be hard. Look at the first table above and find what you like to work with. Most go for a set of three or four chips, so use whichever you are to figure out your sweet-spot and therefore which custom draw number you should have. Find where the two match up and remember that number. This way, you know whether you should dump the doubles of the part of a PA you're holding or whether you should keep them in favor of support chips. Once you've gotten this down, you should remember the rest of the column so that you know the odds of a chip showing up after you've already used or dumped one or two. This takes a lot more mental effort than you may be used to, but keeping track of such things will make you MUCH better. After this you may want to learn the odds of drawing another support chip, also, based on how many you have. When building a folder, consider the odds of getitng the PA or combo you're working around. When doing so, the special section can be quite helpful in determining if you really want to use something. Frankly, some of the odds of things turned out to be utterly dismal--even worse than I imagined (except in the case of MasterStyle). By looking at the charts or by seeing where the odds graphs match up laterally (that's horizontal, folks) you can see what you're sacrificing by playing with a lower chip count. For example, playing with a ten chip count with a three chip set is more or less equivalent to playing with an eight chip draw with four of each. Are you willing to sacrifice the three chips for the additional NaviCust space or do you want to give up NaviCust room to have three additional chip slots in your folder? Before, such choices seemed completely unrelated. NaviCusts and Folders were constructed seperately, and you used any one which seemed that it had synergy, usually in the form of a stage program or something equally trivial. Now, the choice is a matter of direct consequence. +--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+\ | XI. Contact Information { +--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+/ You can e-mail me at Malinhion@hotmail.com if you have any questions, comments complaints, or suggestions regarding this FAQ. However, do not contact me regarding MMBN questions other than those related to the content of this FAQ. +--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+\ | XII. Credits { +--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+/ My first thanks goes to the field of statistics. They made it all possible. I'd also like to thank CrimsonKnight for helping me with some of the NaviCust setups, input on design choices, and other math-related advice. Thanks to Asakura Yoh for letting me use some NaviCust setups from his and CrimsonKnight's FAQ. I'd like to thank Zidanet129, who let me borrow some of the EXCodes from his NaviCust guide. Thanks to these people who made decent NaviCust setups for me: TheDarkUnknown, LusterSoldier (for inspiration). Thanks to Capcom for making the series. ...And I've decided to put the copyright information here, too. MegaMan and MegaMan Battle Network are copyrights of Capcom. Violate it and they can sue you for every penny you're worth. This guide is copyright Mike O'Connor, 2004. Violate it and I'll eat your family (I can't afford lawyers). But seriosuly, if you want to use what's here, contact me about it first. I have no problems sharing but I will take legal action if you try to rip me off.