* * * * *
                                        
          While my chances of winning are zero, I still have my dollar
                                        
> From: John Hawthorne <XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX>
> To: root@conman.org
> Subject: Feedback
> Date: Thu, 30 Nov 2017 00:09:50 +0000
> 
> Hello there,
> 
> On your page http://boston.conman.org/2009/09/14.1 [1] I noticed that you
> are linking to an article about the chances at winning the lottery. I just
> wanted to ask for some feedback about what you thought of an article that I
> recently wrote.
> 
> You can see it right here:
> 
> https://www.lottoland.com.au/magazine/want-to-improve-your-chances-of-
> winning-the-lottery-heres-how.html
> 
> If you were interested it would be great if you wanted to add my article as
> a resource on the page I mentioned. If you prefer you may also republish
> the article.
> 
> Thank you,
> 
> John.
> 

I suppose John was operating under the theory that “it doesn't hurt to ask.”

The post in question [2] isn't so much about the chances at winning the
lottery (although I stand a better chance of being Tom Cruise [3] than of
winning the Mega Millions Jackpot [4]) as it's best not to play at all.

There's nothing in my post (or the article I linked to) about how to improve
your chances at winning.

Sigh.

The advice given in the link (which I read so you don't have to) simply boils
down to “buy more tickets with less commonly picked numbers” with some dodgy
math thrown in, like this bit from the page:

> Ethan Wolff-Mann puts it this way: In a basic lottery with just one prize,
> $1 tickets, and 100 people playing, any jackpot over $100 will mean that a
> ticket will be worth more than the $1 it costs. If you bought all the
> tickets for $100, you would win the jackpot and take home more than what
> you paid. So theoretically, at a certain size, a lottery ticket can
> actually be worth more than what you pay for it.
> 

Yes, but … 

In this case, yes, the expected value is greater than $1. So if the jackpot
is $200, then the expected value is $2. But that's not the case for most
lotteries. I'm looking at the latest Florida Lottery payouts [5], and man,
the expected value just isn't there. The chance of getting 3 out of 6 numbers
(easiest to win) is 1 in 71 (1.4% chance) and for that, you spent $1 to win
$5, or an expected value of 7¢.

Yeah, lotteries are a tax on the innumerate.

[1] gopher://gopher.conman.org/0Phlog:2009/09/14.1
[2] gopher://gopher.conman.org/0Phlog:2009/09/14.1
[3] http://www.tomcruise.com/
[4] https://www.usamega.com/
[5] https://www.lotterypost.com/game/35/prizes/2017/12/2

Email Sean Conner at sean@conman.org

.