* * * * *
                                        
       As much as I hate Debtember, I can't wait for it to come this year
                                        
> AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD
> OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY. THE
> 06Z RUNS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS ACCELERATED WILMA
> RAPIDLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE LOW
> PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THREE OF THESE
> MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE GFDL SHOWING AN
> EXTREME CHANGE...WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NMI
> FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
> THERE IS ALMOST AS MUCH SPREAD IN THE 5-DAY POSITIONS OF THE 12Z
> GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE YUCATAN TO WELL EAST OF
> THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. WHAT THIS ILLUSTRATES IS THE EXTREME
> SENSITIVITY OF WILMA'S FUTURE TRACK TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE
> GREAT LAKES LOW. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILMA HAS BEEN
> MOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND
> THE LEFT-MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW SHOWING WILMA
> DELAYING OR MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE LOW. I HAVE SLOWED THE
> OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST A LITTLE BIT AT THIS TIME...BUT IF WILMA
> CONTINUES TO MOVE MORE TO THE LEFT THAN EXPECTED...SUBSTANTIAL
> CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE MADE DOWN THE LINE.
> NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY THE
> TIMING...HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY.> 

“HUR RICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 [1]”

Or in other words … “We have no clue where this thing [2] is going.”

Lovely.

[1] http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/192106.shtml?
[2] http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/refresh/WILMA+shtml/211020.shtml?

Email Sean Conner at sean@conman.org

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