Posts by paul@social.paulkedrosky.com
(DIR) Post #ASxH1xKxLyw4alpcMy by paul@social.paulkedrosky.com
2023-02-23T00:08:45Z
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The driving conditions will be epic bad in much of the interior state this weekend, as the next storm comes in. I expect hundreds of miles of roads along and across the Sierras to close. #xp
(DIR) Post #ASxH1yIrlErFaZrSka by paul@social.paulkedrosky.com
2023-02-23T00:08:46Z
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And yes, I know the GFS is excitable, but the model runs have seemingly converged on this highly unusual outcome. #xp
(DIR) Post #ATSrJHFgrREbkzwRs0 by paul@social.paulkedrosky.com
2023-03-08T22:29:11Z
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The overlap between people cold-emailing me CGPT/LLM pitch decks and said people having, until recently, run blockchain startups, is nearly 100%. This strikes me as not coincidental. #xp
(DIR) Post #ATdvMnQJ92P74tRNgW by paul@social.paulkedrosky.com
2023-03-15T00:39:21Z
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I mentioned this before, but it's even more striking now: The weight of snow in California's Sierras is causing enough ground deformation to be visible on volcanism/seismicity GPS sensors. #xp
(DIR) Post #ATxNS4WoKWsNPSTgOG by paul@social.paulkedrosky.com
2023-03-24T15:16:21Z
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I've been sent this paper on "sparks" of AGI in GPT-4 a few times, so I'll re-up it. It makes the point that we are at an AGI inflection, for practical purposes, with GPT-4, and it will be obvious in retrospect, a point with which I agree. #xp https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.12712
(DIR) Post #AU2mo04X30uwbXbSFc by paul@social.paulkedrosky.com
2023-03-27T14:01:26Z
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Hearing regularly from high school and college students dispirited at essentially being forced to use CGPT to write essays and do homework, given that their peers are, and they are at a competitive and time disadvantage without it, even if they'd like to, you know, learn.
(DIR) Post #AU2mo0tvxu2BAxeVN2 by paul@social.paulkedrosky.com
2023-03-27T14:13:03Z
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People know exactly how much text/response modulation is required to avoid detection, and it isn't much. As a result, there is no fear of being caught, and the risk of falling behind peers who are faking it is immense.
(DIR) Post #AU2mo1f58bkRXBi9rM by paul@social.paulkedrosky.com
2023-03-27T14:13:04Z
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And even in-class work is fraught, given that laptops are often needed. Sure, faculty can tell students to turn off wifi, but in a classroom with a few hundred sttudents you can only be so many places at once, and the result is furtive CGPT-ing all over the room.
(DIR) Post #AU2mo2WFwuHaC6ack4 by paul@social.paulkedrosky.com
2023-03-27T14:13:05Z
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It's all becoming ethics theater. We'll pretend to teach; you'll pretend to learn.
(DIR) Post #AU2qwh7fGoq0FyTBBo by paul@social.paulkedrosky.com
2023-03-27T15:00:01Z
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The English expression to be "out over one's skis", meaning being premature at something, is amusing. After all, most skiers' problem is that they lean back and aren't out over their skis, and so they risk crashing. The cliche has it precisely backwards.
(DIR) Post #AU2tQ30fAoiyRcJqJk by paul@social.paulkedrosky.com
2023-03-27T14:42:25Z
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@budgibson I disagree, obviously. These are not calculators, which removed drudgery. Symbolic manipulation for the purpose of weighing evidence, constructing arguments, and deploying language are the near the top of cognitive pyramid. Unless you're expecting rapid evolutionary leaps, it's problematic.
(DIR) Post #AU2tQ49uttik0bekNc by paul@social.paulkedrosky.com
2023-03-27T15:17:21Z
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@budgibson @simon I'm hugely in favor of making software production itself less of priesthood and more open, as I've written extensively. I think there are immense opportunities for flourishing there, given decades of software production, complexity, and cost.
(DIR) Post #AU2x5lFLuF8vNVlvHc by paul@social.paulkedrosky.com
2023-03-27T16:35:11Z
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@simon Yes, and in case you didn't see it, we wrote a long thing on the topic. https://skventures.substack.com/p/societys-technical-debt-and-softwares
(DIR) Post #AUj0bZPFSle5h4QcbY by paul@social.paulkedrosky.com
2023-04-16T21:46:05Z
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Even hardcore Twitter types noticing the decline in timeline activity there. Social networks, like all social activities, can flip rapidly from FOMO (fear of missing out) to FOBS (fear of being seen). Twitter is very close to doing that FOMO→FOBS engagement flip.
(DIR) Post #AUnCYvWmjdzFW3IcdM by paul@social.paulkedrosky.com
2023-04-18T23:31:55Z
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Having lived through a number of tech investing manias, I can say with confidence that AI is already on a path to being right up there. Some of the things I have seen just this week from investors are ... mindboggling.
(DIR) Post #AUrZz0ySBS5FVxUPIW by paul@social.paulkedrosky.com
2023-04-21T00:33:49Z
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Seems so obvious that companies should revert to their own domains for authoritative information issuance. Spin up their own Mastodon instance, use RSS, whatever. But relying on a third-party domain for authoritative information under their name was always a material risk, and now there is no turning back given the ongoing authentication debacle.
(DIR) Post #AV7RLNcYsCb946CLcu by paul@social.paulkedrosky.com
2023-04-28T16:56:32Z
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Fast, cheap, and out of control:I Cloned Myself With AI. She Fooled My Bank and My Family. - WSJ https://www.wsj.com/articles/i-cloned-myself-with-ai-she-fooled-my-bank-and-my-family-356bd1a3?mod=djemptech_t
(DIR) Post #AV7RLPQw8OUIgcm5mi by paul@social.paulkedrosky.com
2023-04-28T16:59:16Z
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Among the more troubling things about Stern's article is how little care AI voice/video clone providers take to make sure that what you uploaded was actually yours. Reddit takes more care in AMA authentication than do voice/video cloning AI companies, which is nuts.
(DIR) Post #AWdMQLgvSmYqHkpFho by paul@social.paulkedrosky.com
2023-06-13T01:36:17Z
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"[N]early all of the observed increase in [California burned area] over the past half-century is attributable to anthropogenic climate change"Anthropogenic climate change impacts exacerbate summer forest fires in California https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2213815120
(DIR) Post #AXEKiGlqn90HuzWqo4 by paul@social.paulkedrosky.com
2023-06-30T21:40:57Z
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How new tennis racquets upended tennis. Fascinating and important labor economics paper on how technological change alters competencies in deep and persistent ways. Technological change and obsolete skills: Evidence from men’s professional tennis https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0927537121000865