Posts by manlius@mathstodon.xyz
(DIR) Post #AUgP76oLT9cnf38dkm by manlius@mathstodon.xyz
2023-04-15T13:58:26Z
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Assume it'd possible to recreate the conditions of the Universe at a point t0 in time between 10 and 13 billion years ago. Then Apply a very small perturbation to some physical observable, in such a way that the new state of the Universe is quite similar, but not the exactly same, as our Universe at time t0. Name U'(t) the evolution of the state of the perturbed universe, and U(t) the evolution of the unperturbed state of the current universe, until nowadays at time t.Q:What is the likelihood of this Mastodon post to appear in the universe U', after assuming to know that in the universe U the post appeared exactly at time t? Assume to know that this happened with probability 1 in U at time t. This is of course related to what emergence is and to its robustness to perturbations. If we are a the result of a frozen accident, as per Gell-Mann's arguments, how likely is that accident to happen again under some small changes? Any thought, theoretical, philosophical, qualitative or quantitative is more than welcome. Cc:@tiago @ricard_sole @c4computation @PessoaBrain @WiringtheBrain @lmrocha @lamaral @sfiscience @thilo #ComplexSystems #ComplexityThoughts
(DIR) Post #AUhf06zMCfUAbqvzmK by manlius@mathstodon.xyz
2023-04-16T07:57:43Z
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@tiago @ricard_sole @c4computation @PessoaBrain @WiringtheBrain @lmrocha @lamaral @sfiscience @thilo agree, technically correct. Assume that the perturbation will affect our current light cone: do you think everything can or will change then? If so, any way to estimate a likelihood?
(DIR) Post #AUhrmCR0SQJKqkZ0Pg by manlius@mathstodon.xyz
2023-04-16T10:20:53Z
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@tiago @ricard_sole @c4computation @PessoaBrain @WiringtheBrain @lmrocha @lamaral @sfiscience @thilo there we go! I think too that having non-deterministic physical laws, the question per se might be ill defined.In fact, only the ones who believe in the Laplace universe might think differently.And even in a deterministic universe, numerosity and nonlinearity of interactions drive the system towards long-term unpredictability, although under ergodicity one might say that the probability of ANY given state is not zero. That is: the probability of having another instance of me posting on Mastodon the same message cannot be easily estimated, but cannot be assumed to be zero or arbitrarily small with naive arguments.
(DIR) Post #AUhwTbvVxCoGBGmynI by manlius@mathstodon.xyz
2023-04-16T11:13:29Z
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@tiago @ricard_sole @c4computation @PessoaBrain @WiringtheBrain @lmrocha @lamaral @sfiscience @thilo agree. Then the next question would be under which conditions you have perturbations that matter in the long term.Nevertheless, in system at the critical point perturbations do propagate across any scale and, if temporal correlations are scale free as well, you can have that anything matters for a lot of time, especially if the system is large enough and it's not affected by finite size effect (a universe might be considered large enough, I guess?)
(DIR) Post #AUuQ0u2gViaqWmbsUC by manlius@mathstodon.xyz
2023-04-22T09:34:42Z
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@PessoaBrain @tiago @ricard_sole @c4computation @WiringtheBrain @lmrocha @lamaral @sfiscience @thilo that's a good point, indeed.Summing up: if something happened in a remote corner of the Universe U' we all agree that the impact on us would negligible.Instead, if you have a perturbation on a specific (evolutionary?) path that involve us rather directly (this should be quantified by some correlation function in space and time) things might dramatically change.I wouldn't mention the asteroid, but something less extreme: is life how we know it, and what came out of it (eg, human civilization) strongly sensitive to initial conditions and not ergodic? Otherwise said: how many distinct evolutionary paths can lead to comparable outcomes? Any way to make an estimate? Which are the obstacles?
(DIR) Post #AVysl8kAAND1PIs6zI by manlius@mathstodon.xyz
2023-05-24T12:26:18Z
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I have a figure made with the R package 'maps'.The paper with that figure got accepted by a journal requiring a CCBy4 license.What's the license of figures that we produce by using that R package? The code of the package is released under GPL3, but not clear to me if that applies also to the figures produced by me with that package.#RStat #datascience #license #copyright Ideas? @franco_vazza @tiago
(DIR) Post #AVywgwRiLW79vQUorI by manlius@mathstodon.xyz
2023-05-24T13:58:10Z
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@tiago @christianp thank you! So there is no issue in generating figures containing maps? The journal is asking to specify the license of the shape file used for the maps in the figure. It’s not some easy map to recognize, like OSM or google.. it looks more like the standard boundaries of countries (no meta info such as roads, mountains, etc)
(DIR) Post #AVyxqysOGV4WJRKBTU by manlius@mathstodon.xyz
2023-05-24T14:11:06Z
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@tiago @christianp and that’s what I was fearing. I contacted the maintainer of the package, let’s see.Many thanks for the exchange!
(DIR) Post #AVzWuAwhLPTn0fb9Vo by manlius@mathstodon.xyz
2023-05-24T20:43:51Z
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@tiago @christianp so, do you think it’s maps have one?
(DIR) Post #AVzcDhx9LcaEeXwVFY by manlius@mathstodon.xyz
2023-05-24T21:43:28Z
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@tiago @christianp here: https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/maps/index.htmlActually, GPL2
(DIR) Post #AVzdv063riXFKaJnSC by manlius@mathstodon.xyz
2023-05-24T22:02:23Z
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@tiago @christianp it seems that it’s just free for any purpose..
(DIR) Post #AWx3AwazINJeozyiH2 by manlius@mathstodon.xyz
2023-06-22T12:23:00Z
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What is the prevalence of long COVID? And why different estimates often disagree(d) w/ each other? What's the role of vaccination?The choice of the reference group is fundamental to understand the prevalence and to compare distinct groups within and across countries.We performed a large-scale ecological analysis and developed a statistical method to reconcile distinct estimates, gaining insights on the prevalence trend. Overall, we find:- consistent trend estimates across the UK and the US for distinct age groups, with higher prevalence in the US- vaccines have a positive, but limited, benefit in reducing the prevalence of long COVID- 7x increase between 2020 and 2022- some regions of the world are more affected than othersOur study is ecological, but provides a grounded way to compare the prevalence across distinct countries & distinct age groups. Our results are: - numerically, in great agreement with patient/cohort-based estimates.- consistent across the globe- affected by some limitations, anyway.This study can be of interest for @LongCovidKids @longcovidsos @longcovid @erictopol Paper: https://journals.plos.org/globalpublichealth/article?id=10.1371/journal.pgph.0001917#LongCovid #GlobalPublicHealth #COVID
(DIR) Post #AXHc3YJJ3Y6x5nn8oS by manlius@mathstodon.xyz
2023-07-02T06:31:17Z
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#Twitter experiencing all kinds of problems due to a ridiculous management.The saddest end for one of the most important platforms (and inventions) of the last two decades.Another #TwitterMigration ongoing towards Mastodon, let’s welcome the new users!
(DIR) Post #AXHc3ZJhJa1CDIyy3s by manlius@mathstodon.xyz
2023-07-02T11:48:23Z
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Every time Elon takes some decision, this happens.Elon is the largest (unaware) supporter of Mastodon. Thanks to him, the platform moved from a couple of million users to 13M in less than one year. #Twitter #TwitterMigration #TwitterExodus
(DIR) Post #AYDYYYTIVRqQ2VG7oO by manlius@mathstodon.xyz
2023-07-30T09:01:45Z
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If you are curious about the novel results published in Science and Nature by the collaboration btw Meta and US academics, you might want to read #ComplexityThoughtsI try to build some background for non-experts of #ComputationalSocialScience and summarize the main findings. Finally, I dig into the ongoing debate, covering existing documents and my chats with Sandra González-Bailón, Sander van der Linden, Pierluigi Sacco and othersThis debate might be of high interest for self-organized decentralized platforms, such as #Mastodon and the #Fediverse in generalYou can read the (100% free) piece here: https://manlius.substack.com/p/are-social-media-undermining-democracyIf you find https://manlius.substack.com/ useful, please subscribe. It is (and will always be) free.#SocialMedia #Democracy #DigitalDemocracy #DigitalPublicHealth #ComplexSystems #Complexity #HumanBehavior
(DIR) Post #AYnLmKK94zQSQZFsRc by manlius@mathstodon.xyz
2023-08-16T16:56:09Z
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Prigogine: “statistical mechanics and thermodynamics start where traditional dynamics (classical or quantum) breaks down.”Maybe he's referring to non-equilibrium cases? Otherwise 👉 quantum thermodynamics...Ideas?@tiago @johncarlosbaez @j_bertolotti @franco_vazza
(DIR) Post #AZKqo8AQl29w6BjFDM by manlius@mathstodon.xyz
2023-09-01T15:32:56Z
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#ComplexityThoughts is back after the summer break! In the issue #14 amazing new papers, from #NetworkScience foundations to #OriginOfLife #Neuroscience and #ComputationalSocialScienceUnraveling complexity: building knowledge, one paper at a time! Not yet subscribed? It's never too late, and it's 100% free.https://manlius.substack.com/p/complexity-thoughts-issue-14
(DIR) Post #Aajm7A9pRdt77eMi4e by manlius@mathstodon.xyz
2023-10-13T16:53:16Z
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🚨Excited to announce the opening of 2 fully funded PhD and 3 senior research/postdoctoral 3y+ positions to work on the statistical physics of #ComplexNetworks!The focus will be on climate #resilience & coupled complex processes.Join us: we'll have fun!#ScienceJobs #Jobs
(DIR) Post #AbR1y8h7uP43QH9FhI by manlius@mathstodon.xyz
2023-11-03T16:10:37Z
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One year of #ComplexityThoughts ... I could not bet on it, I was wrong.https://open.substack.com/pub/manlius/p/one-year-of-complexity-thoughts
(DIR) Post #AnttIymiVIIgU6rRCq by manlius@mathstodon.xyz
2024-11-08T16:20:00Z
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The Issue #47 of #ComplexityThoughts is out!#Neuroscience dominates this issue, enjoy!https://manlius.substack.com/p/complexity-thoughts-issue-47