Posts by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
(DIR) Post #B266jMy8RrKRYO5p9k by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2026-01-09T04:20:47.026222Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
Summary of #Russia military losses in #Ukraine - an important methodology note: irreversible losses are the estimated sum of KIA (killed in action), MIA (missing in action), severe WIA (wounded in action), POW (prisoners of war) and deserters. These calculations hold a significant uncertainty due to the estimated character of most of them.There are some hard numbers, like 172’000 Russian KIA confirmed by name (as of today) by projects that count publicly available obituaries and other deceased registers available in Russia and they generally corroborate the above estimates, especially in terms of dynamics of growth and basis for further estimation (e.g. it is usually assumed that only half of the KIA is only ever publicized). What is important here is the order of magnitude which is consistent among such analyses.Source: https://t.me/United24media/38856
(DIR) Post #B26wfOmcxJuFdg8cTY by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2026-01-09T11:23:24.881523Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
Piotr Kaszuwara (TVP.info):A family survived the night in this flat in #Kyiv: a father, mother and their daughter, who was not yet two years old. A Russian drone struck the façade of their block of flats. They survived because they were in the bathroom, behind two walls. The first strike was followed by another. One of the medics who had come to save the lives of others was killed on the spot.
(DIR) Post #B278Ey8saDI6vxi5HU by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2026-01-09T15:39:25.278539Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
Interesting, a simplified #Rust syntax compiled called #Ruefn main() -> i32 { let a: [i32; 3] = [1, 2, 3]; // 3 elements let b: [bool; 2] = [true, false]; // 2 booleans @dbg(a[0]); 0}https://rue-lang.dev/tutorial/06-arrays/
(DIR) Post #B28m8QFRsV8VOtAxc0 by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2026-01-10T09:32:30.171467Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
#Germany military analyst C Schmidt ran some simulations on the recent launch of #Russia “Oreshnik” rocket and came to a conclusion that:German Arrow 3 would launch to intercept approximately with Oreshnik surrogate SS-X-31/RS-26 Rubezh approximately 1500km over Warsaw. Launch site Kaputsin Yar. Intercept happens about 590km Alt Exo-Atmospheric east of Poznan.So downing the Russian rocket that they advertise as “impossible to intercept” seems to be entirely doable - that’s in the context of the periodic Russian threats to military bases in Poland. I think EU could also intercept the Russian rockets over Ukraine, but not sure where that would need to happen geographically (launch site).The Arrow 3 system is jointly produced by #Israel and US, and is one of the few systems specialised in intercepting exoatmospheric ballistic missiles such as “Oreshnik”.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow_3
(DIR) Post #B28wyGMmrV5HLwxz4i by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2026-01-10T13:18:24.506036Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
If you were looking for a true symbol of #Russia impotence in the war in #Ukraine then the Horlivka sector is probably most telling. During the 1418 days of the invasion after 2022 Russians moved the front line there by the whole stunning… 17 km.You can measure yourself: https://deepstatemap.live/#11/48.4269213/37.8856667
(DIR) Post #B290EmhqguUG9HO676 by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2026-01-10T14:10:43.818440Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@liilliil I think ballistic can be only intercepted at the peak point of of the ballistic curve - in case of Kapustin Yar to Lviv launch that probably means somewhere over central Ukraine?@Scubyw
(DIR) Post #B2CnH8DPAdhofHmBxQ by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2026-01-12T09:53:49.059511Z
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#Russia Solovyov’s angry speech, interesting in its shift of goals, which he was clearly ordered to verbalise in his narrative “to the people”:Venezuela and Syria are unimportant (they are already unimportant, a month ago they were strategically important ;), what is important for Russia is the “near abroad”, e.g. Armenia, but above all UkraineA classic dose of multi-Russian arrogance: “the games are over, screw international law”, but today it’s more of a pathetic whimper for the amusement of simpletonsThreat/allusion: “if our national interest allowed us to start a ‘SWO” in Ukraine, why shouldn’t we do the same in other countries?Poor Solovyov looks very bored because he quite mechanically that ‘we must stop casting pearls before swine, screw what they say in Europe, we must stop sympathising with the Ukrainians’, which is simply repackaging the old crap called ‘we haven’t started yet’ into a new gold coin, which in 2025 looks only more and more pathetic.https://video.echelon.pl/w/7ZQ1g4KS1NsredYRfvN8Mk
(DIR) Post #B2D5hlLi5n1IjzVdsO by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2026-01-12T13:29:38.310031Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
If you ever wondered, #Nostr is a social network whose community is focused on personal freedoms and privacy 😂
(DIR) Post #B2HBf2Q5XodfAmTshc by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2026-01-14T09:53:30.161814Z
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#Russia “Dva Mayora” military channel commented on a case from Rostov-on-Don when a man was killed by downed UAV in his flat:If you shoot down UAVs heading to military targets with dozens of kg of high explosive on their path over towns then yes, they will fall onto residential houses.The Russian side has routinely used this explanation since 2022, but only in relation to Russian drones over #ukraine towns. There’s two famous videos by Russia’s UN representative where he uses two convincing yet completely opposite arguments when talking of Russian drones over Ukraine (“if you don’t shoot them they won’t kill civilians”) or Ukrainian over Russia (“you’re killing our civilians even if we shot them down”).There’s one more important difference - there are numerous documented cases of Russian drones and rockets striking houses at full throttle, i.e. with functioning engines and controls, and therefore not as a result of being shot down. Or two cruise missiles hitting the same house twice - both of which clearly demonstrate it was not a case of misguided or failed missile but that Russia intentionally targeted a civilian building.Still, it’s quite a new quality to see Russian military channel that indirectly condemns the practice of shooting down drones over cities by the Russian air defence forces.
(DIR) Post #B2Ph2wWxk8UnhZFq2S by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2026-01-18T15:00:35.055051Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
Several English media published a long analysis of #Russia Dmitry Rogozin on 15 January titled similarly to this one[^1]Russia issues warning that ‘the end of the world’ will begin if Trump continues with planThey seem to be referring to The Mirror, a British tabloid, but all of them failed to mention the original source of the publication and it was worded rather vaguely, as if Rogozin gave an exclusive interview to Mirror.It wasn’t exceptionally difficult for me to find the original source of the “Rogozin analysis” which was in reality published on 14 January on his… Telegram channel.[^2] So yes, that’s essentially Rogozin’s comment from his personal channel that has been amplified by Mirror et al as “analysis”. I’m not really quoting it’s because there’s nothing insightful there, apart from the usual sabre rattling and doomsaying.[^1]: https://www.unilad.com/news/world-news/russia-warning-trump-end-of-world-dmitry-rogozin-079995-20260115[^2]: https://t.me/rogozin_do/8032
(DIR) Post #B2TsLwNw6hYmcHgSZM by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2026-01-20T14:50:47.766029Z
2 likes, 0 repeats
While there’s quite a few reliable sources of estimates of #Russia losses in the war - like MediaZona/BBC and “Goryushko” - there’s much less so for #Ukraine losses.The only project #UALosses that monitors Ukrainian losses in the same way as the others - that is, scanning for public obituaries and databases that leave little doubt as to the military affiliation of the deceased (which are surprisingly easy to find in Russia). The problem is that UALosses had been just caught mixing KIA soldiers with random people who were most likely civilians who were registered as missing, and it’s also easy to check because Ukraine maintains such register for the families of missing persons. Therefore it’s very difficult to treat UALosses numbers as reliable.
(DIR) Post #B2Tsiu9IaRy2LFmsSG by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2026-01-20T15:21:03.362118Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
#IAEA Rafeal M. Gossi today:Several Ukrainian electrical substations vital for nuclear safety were affected by widespread military activity this morning. Chernobyl NPP lost all off-site power and power lines to other NPPs were also impacted. The IAEA is actively following developments in order to assess impact on nuclear safety.Note #Russia did not hit the plants themselves, they just substations routing electricity to the plants and connecting them to the grid. As of 2026 #Ukraine the #nuclear power plants are the only power plants that are operational, as #Russia has damaged everything else - coal, gas, wind, solar, hydro etc. - clearly expressing its goal being to “freeze the hell out of Ukrainians” and force them into capitulation.This indicates how desperate Putin is, given that his 2025 offensive failed to deliver any breakthroughs or even highly visible results on the ground. At the same time, it yielded a very tangible loss of manpower, with Putin’s only tactics seeming to be “one more push, victory is just behind the corner”, putting all Russia’s economy at stake, and that going on for four years now.The problem is that apparently it still didn’t get through to Kremlin that since at least a year Ukraine does have means to retaliate - that is, weapons able to reach high value targets deep inside Russia and able to saturate Russian air defense in a way similar to what Russians are doing with their swarms of long-range drones. I’m a bit surprised today’s Gossi’s news haven’t caused much more decisive response from world’s leaders because the direction Russians are heading to is very dangerous one - and it will be exclusively on them.
(DIR) Post #B2XP78bQHR6m7tQAGu by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2026-01-22T07:11:01.818780Z
0 likes, 2 repeats
Danish CEO Lars Christensen posted the following statement about the change in US policy and I think it somewhat reflects how Europe sees the ongoing situation. There’s counter arguments to that - criticism in the Congress, the Senate, the individual States, and thin majority by which #Trump won in 2024. But there’s also arguments in support - support for Trump in the same Congress and Senate, and escalating ICE violence that marks a change in internal just as in foreign policy of the US. All following text is quote from Christensen without block quote for readability:The problem isn't Trump. The problem is the US. When the outside world observes Trump's insane behaviour and his threats against allies, and we at the same time observe that there is no real action from the US public, Congress, the US Supreme Court, or the US media about this insanity, we will all have to conclude that the US accepts this behaviour. The public in the US think the US is entitled to a certain position in the world where there is no room for decent behaviour and where there are no norms and rules. That means that we all have to conclude that the US — not only Trump — has betrayed the international order that the US, with its Western partners, were the main architects of after the Second World War. This is the conclusion that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney so clearly laid out in his speech at Davos yesterday. We simply cannot trust the US to play by the rules any more. Therefore, we also fundamentally have to ask ourselves — should we trust the financial and economic structure which is an integral part of the global rules-based order?Americans live in the illusion that the US can do everything on its own, despite the fact that the US for nearly 20 years has lived beyond its means. US private and government consumption has been funded by, among others, European central banks and pension funds. But we now have to ask ourselves — why would we trade in dollars? Why would we put our savings into US Treasury bonds? If the US is not a rules-based society, we cannot trust the dollar to be a stable currency, and it would be insane to hold dollars. As domestic US institutions are eroded and governance structures destroyed, the US will be turned into an emerging market economy — or more accurately, a de-merging economy. If the US threatens the territory of allies, then the US acts as an authoritarian bully nation. Nobody in their right mind would lend money to the US government. If the US doesn't live up to its international obligations and respect the sovereignty of other nations, why would we expect the US government to honour its debts? If Trump can tariff nations that will not give up their territory, then there is certainly no reason to believe that the US will not introduce capital controls. And if that is a risk, why would you risk investing in the US?It is not a question about Europe standing up to the US. It is a question about being prudent with our investments — about reducing risks.Every day Trump remains in office, distrust of the US increases, and the cost for the US will go up day by day. And this is irreversible. It takes years to build trust, but you can destroy it by your actions in minutes. Europe has now completely lost trust in the US. And so has Canada. It is up to the people of the US to demonstrate that Trump is an 'outlier', and it is up to the American people to stop him. If you don't do that, we will have to assume that this is what the US is about — whether the name of the President is Trump or something else, whether the President is a Republican or a Democrat.Source: https://x.com/mamomvpy/status/2014020721819...
(DIR) Post #B2XQx2BjTQfvFFiMgC by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2026-01-22T08:20:52.887530Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
#Russian military channel writes without enthusiasm about the finalisation of #Poland’s transfer of MiG-29 aircraft to #Ukraine, emphasising that despite their age, they are a valuable addition to Ukraine’s missile and drone defence capabilities, ready for use by Ukrainian pilots ‘right out of the box’. Worse still, the Polish army will gain access to Ukrainian drone technology in return 😄 So well done, #Poland and #Ukraine Ministries of Defence 👍
(DIR) Post #B2Y3PwgSoXSUpVImFU by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2026-01-22T13:04:08.296498Z
0 likes, 1 repeats
I’m replying collectively to @Arne @freediverx @CartyBoston as @devin_and_earth you all made very interesting and similar points about what’s going on in the US.I had many times myself highlighted that the state of United States is not the same as president Donald Trump, but here’s the catch:Citizens protesting definitely do count from moral perspective but what really counts at the end of the day is what the US institutions do. Because this is what will have a tangible impact on on both American citizens (what ICE does) and US alliances. If institutions hold, Trump will be a painful but just a lesson in populism and democracy.If institutions don’t hold, I don’t want to even think where this could go.And please note I’m speaking from a point of view of some one who had been watching the same process happening in Russia after 2000. I see a very clear pattern of what Trump is trying to achieve - subjugating law enforcement, media, judiciary and army to president, which would have disastrous consequences for American democracy, because that’s precisely what Putin was doing in that order.There’s critical difference - Russian society was always 90% passive or passively approving of Putin’s “strong man” course and entered the trap voluntarily. Those who protested were a honorable mention, but did not have any real impact - then they were exiled, bullied into submission, jailed or killed. So when you lose judiciary it’s game over and Trump will definitely try that - and remember that judiciary without law enforcement is just as toothless as ICC.I always believed that in the US the proportion would be exactly opposite, but now I see it’s probably more like 50/50 which makes the outcome very uncertain - and I’d love someone from the US to tell me “no, you got this completely wrong, and institutions do hold and people are taking things into their own hands”.
(DIR) Post #B2fxrprURa92dVbHWK by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2026-01-26T10:11:03.451853Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
Yesterday’s #Russia military correspondent Anatoliy Radov has ‘little good news’ and the situation is ‘becoming increasingly difficult’ for their soldiers due to ‘counterattacks by the khokhols’ [Ukrainians - insult]. However, Radov’s moaning is surpassed by Russian writer German Sadulayev, who complains that ‘Ukrainian UAV operators only attack our soldiers, like some kind of monsters, and they even get points for it!’ unlike “ours” who ‘prefer to attack equipment and weapons’ 🤦 Yes German, especially in #Kherson where ‘your guys’ happily attack civilians for being ‘disguised ZSU soldiers’ and your aviation which attempts to freeze Ukrainian civilians to death. Attacking civilians in towns is so much more honorable than ‘monstrous’ attacks on actual combatants in the actual battlefield.Also, Sadulayev does not consider the most obvious solution – if Russian soldiers do not storm Ukrainian territory, no one will attack them 🤷 Meanwhile, Ilia Tumanov, ‘Fighterbomber,’ comments on the complaints of #Belgorod residents about aerial bombs that continue to fall on the city — Russian bombs, of course, usually UMPK glide bombs, which are falling short while launching them at #Ukraine.Tumanov writes that unfortunately this is how it has to be because the ‘industry is producing them at an express pace’, which ‘must affect quality’, and the ground and air crews ‘are overworked’, so mistakes happen. And since the bombs are falling on the city, this is apparently the most convenient route for their drop, and ‘you just have to be patient’.P.S. I’ve checked Radov today as he promised more news, but not yet.
(DIR) Post #B2gEPvURcgPfCk6AzY by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2026-01-26T14:12:59.508783Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
#Russia political commentator Vladimir Pastukhov on #Putin and war:An interesting question: will Putin risk continuing without war? After all, for him, this is also like jumping into an ice hole. War is an area of maximum political comfort for him. War is a powerful political tranquilliser that shuts down the critical consciousness of the ‘aggressively passive majority.’ Without war, this majority becomes disorganised and unstable, and it becomes vulnerable to the influence of social elements that are ‘destructive’ to the regime.However, war also has disadvantages: What has happened to make us think that Putin might want to withdraw from the war? The fact is that all of the above works like clockwork only under one condition: the war is being fought successfully. And the war in Ukraine is no longer successful for Russia. And the fact that it now looks even less successful for Ukraine does not change the essence of the matter.And there’s this very nice “alchemist” analogy:All this, in my opinion, suggests that Putin is currently in a tense situation. He is carefully weighing up the risks for himself: the risk of continuing the war and the risk of ending it. Like a medieval alchemist, he is searching for a formula to end the war that will transform the manure heap of its unforeseen complications into a gold medal for the victorious hero, and if he thinks he has found it, he will take the risk.https://echofm.online/opinions/risknet-li-putin-zhit-dalshe-bez-vojny (in Russian)
(DIR) Post #B2h3NgQ9m3J1YFmTEu by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2026-01-26T23:52:04.845038Z
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One day after US took ownership over TikTok subsidiary in the US, they didn’t open it to the famous First Amendment but rather did the opposite - brought Chinese censorship to the US 😂
(DIR) Post #B2imBl914nVhp0PbHs by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2026-01-27T20:21:28.674308Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
A classic story from #Russia town of Engels where district heating network got all corroded and stopped working due to no maintenance, which left hundreds of residents in the cold during winter temperatures reaching -20°C. In a typical turn of events the residents of the town located over 700 km Moscow record weepy appeal addressed to “Putin and Bastrykin”, asking for investigation and support while they don’t trust local administration the slightest and knowing asking them for anything is pointless. They however don’t seem to realise that at the cost of one (!) rocket barrage launched every few days from the same Engels airbase reaching tens of millions of dollars their whole town could be probably rebuilt from scratch with brand new piles.https://video.echelon.pl/w/9a14yMouCgz7tD55SxChSz
(DIR) Post #B2imBmOIRTKLggZJk8 by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2026-01-27T20:23:53.214231Z
2 likes, 0 repeats
Interestingly, one woman comments “we will freeze faster than Kiev”, so she perfectly realizes what the Russian army is doing in Ukraine, but she’s most concerned about the council tax she’s paying for not working district heating rather than the fate of civilians in Kiev…