Posts by fetzert@econtwitter.net
(DIR) Post #AV8tVdh6xXW1gbxzIu by fetzert@econtwitter.net
2023-01-02T17:23:47Z
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Now there is many ways to characterise these protest voters. I do a ton of that in my work on #austerity. But these two graphs point out the most ridiculous #Brexit voters (who probably feel a ton of shame).This is a tricky one to explain so feedback is appreciated. This is coming from a set of #Tweets from 2019 and uses data from the #BritishElectionStudy (see here https://twitter.com/fetzert/status/1092043111604387841?s=20&t=ffHujApr9L2glhTgYynAxQ).The #BES asked people prior to the #EUreferendum what do they think is the chance #Leave will win.
(DIR) Post #AV8tVfZ20YEzU8CYzI by fetzert@econtwitter.net
2023-01-02T17:29:27Z
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This is: they asked the voters their expectation of a #Leave victory. We can break this down by those that actually voted for #Leave by deciles. That is plotted on the vertical axis here.So in the first decile means 10% of #Leave voters thought the chance of #Leave winning was less than 20% (horizontal axis).This is data from Wave 7/8.Now the same people (because I care about switchers) were asked in later waves about #Bregret.
(DIR) Post #AV8tVhInXsRasMccxk by fetzert@econtwitter.net
2023-01-02T17:35:03Z
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Now there is this interesting group of #Leave voters who disproportionately express #Regret #Bregret among those who did not expect #Leave to win (i.e. those that thought chances of Leave victory were low).My interpretation is that these are basically people who thought "their vote doesnt matter" but "wanted to send a message". Some would call this a good definition of a #protestvote. If this group had not voted or not "protested", #Remain would have won. Its the "ridiculous" #Brexit.
(DIR) Post #AV8tVj6SqhlaSgro12 by fetzert@econtwitter.net
2023-01-02T17:38:46Z
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Fact 4: Fundamental support (the stock/average supporter) of #Brexit is dying out. @simonjhix has a nice write up here https://euideas.eui.eu/2022/12/14/will-support-for-brexit-become-extinct/But it goes a bit further than this. The main question is "why" has support for "implementing #Brexit" remained high. Well, there is a lot of people who voted #Remain that wanted to adhere to the democratic principle that the vote should be implemented.In the second phase of #Brexit - the shape of #Brexit - this group gave the Tories a carte blanche.
(DIR) Post #AV8tVl7FMla4hhFSVs by fetzert@econtwitter.net
2023-01-02T17:43:24Z
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Fact 5: Support for #Brexit collapsed quickly after the #EUReferendum. The protest vote that drove #Brexit (which is the vote that matters) collapsed in a very predictable fashion almost immediately after the #EUReferendum I wrote a paper about this: Who is NOT voting for #Brexit anymore...https://tinyurl.com/45bz4tz8The biggest declines in #Brexit support were coming from the places where the #ProtestVote was highest... not surprisingly.Here is a short write uphttps://ukandeu.ac.uk/is-the-uk-having-a-rethink-on-brexit/
(DIR) Post #AV8tVlnQpvKCoWz9Ga by fetzert@econtwitter.net
2023-01-07T23:03:23Z
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Just adding: the other swing most likely is bots or instructed users not knowing what to respond on questions that are “more complicated”
(DIR) Post #AV8tVn0ELp9mYVysr2 by fetzert@econtwitter.net
2023-01-02T17:52:19Z
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Now it is NOT surprising that support for "implementing #Brexit" is collapsing. This support was upheld by the #Remain voters who turned to "support #Brexit" out of their wish to adhere to democratic norms.This is what the YouGov figures reveals as fundamentally #Brexit never had a broad genuine mandate.It was the political and media shaping of the narrative around #Brexit to which some of my academic peers contributed that enabled #Brexit to be implemented in its current form.
(DIR) Post #AV8tVorRRTJaJpstQu by fetzert@econtwitter.net
2023-01-02T17:59:47Z
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Now what is really important is to understanding the timing. Why does the "penny" finally drop? Many protest #Leave voters, as I showed, were ahead of their #Remain peers. For Leave voting areas we know that this may be because #Brexit is hurting them the hardest.I have a paper to show that: "Measuring the Regional Economic Cost of #brexit https://tinyurl.com/mu3xrcp3Check out the interactive visualizationhttps://brexitcost.org/(more time/resources would be great to update this)
(DIR) Post #AV8tVqhEcOL40l7lnk by fetzert@econtwitter.net
2023-01-02T18:03:42Z
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Speculation: I think the penny is finally dropping on the #Remain voters turned #Brexit implementation supporters that have enabled the hard #Brexit we are seeing. The pandemic (mis)management, the #Ukraine war, the obvious #austerity-induced fragility of public services & the climate crisis that requires decisive action has exposed the frailty of our democracies. People want to be heard. And #Brexit, no #austerity, in the UK, is the original sin.We need to clean up our act at home.
(DIR) Post #AV8tVsavYoTvtmBlFQ by fetzert@econtwitter.net
2023-01-02T18:05:47Z
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The radicals driving Brexit are also behind attempts to hollow out democratic norms with attempts to bring about #VoterSuppression, the outright #corruption, the undermining of academic freedom, the politicisation of the civil service, and the undermining of the #ruleoflaw The penny is dropping on those "good meaning people" that voted Remain that supported #Brexit to be implemented to adhere to democratic norms when the very same are being eroded from within.
(DIR) Post #AV8tVuGnKdZ95umi92 by fetzert@econtwitter.net
2023-01-02T18:09:44Z
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Solutions: The UK's root problems are deep. There are no quick fixes. Quick fixes can produce huge levels of instability.The UK requires an institutional overhaul that should involvea) smart decentralisation with more funding for last mile delivery but open shared platformsb) more transparencyc) proportional representation possibly using a voting mechanism similar to the German one.d) financial sector reform to encourage more long term investmentse) more immigration
(DIR) Post #AV8tVw8iNeI6tR1HpQ by fetzert@econtwitter.net
2023-01-02T18:13:44Z
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My opinion: The Brexit experiment never made sense and wont make sense. Life is tough.The current geopolitical context is one that forces the US to becoming more European, while the EU is becoming more American. The UK was the classical interlocutor and is now being sidelined. They are starting to feel it.A tilt to Asia may have longer term benefits but raises huge concerns from a geopolitical dimension and the UK is just small fry in all this. The UK is between a rock and a hard place.
(DIR) Post #AV8tVxtXr1LSKxwCSe by fetzert@econtwitter.net
2023-01-03T00:20:34Z
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Now I should add -- as this adds to the dodgy -- that UK #opinionpolls are a bit strange, especially the YouGov surveys...I just leave this here:http://www.trfetzer.com/opinion-polling-and-biases/Its a bit techy but important IMO.
(DIR) Post #AYQS4n9q2aHV10QYbo by fetzert@econtwitter.net
2022-12-05T15:31:04Z
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#Retrofitting and #Building upgrades are the easiest way to align three societal objectives: it can help people save money, it can help safe the environment and its a nice way of "not giving it to #Putin". I want to share the story of my amazing dad, who has spent the past 20 years optimizing my family home to become #CarbonNegative.He is an #engineer, so this comes much more natural to him as me being an #economist, but I think this story is an #inspiration to others. So lets get on...
(DIR) Post #AYQS4pdgoZLciAPQPo by fetzert@econtwitter.net
2022-12-05T15:32:17Z
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My dad started thinking about the #EnergyTransition for a long time. My parents built my family home themselves in 1988. This was common then. The property has (had) an #oil #centralheating system. Already 20 years ago, my dad had drawn up plans to make the property suitable for a #solar powered #heatpump taking advantage of #geothermal temperature gradient..The goal was to reduce the "Vorlauftemperatur" or "pre temperature". This was necessary to enable the shift to a #heatpump.
(DIR) Post #AYQS4rXNkzUUbBTPrU by fetzert@econtwitter.net
2022-12-05T15:33:32Z
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The house has conventional heaters (not #underfloor) and heatpumps do require a reasonably low feed temperature. This was achieved through a raft of measures to lower heat loss. Insulating pipes, insulation behind the heaters, interior ceiling insulation, optimizing the oil burner & temperature settings, optimizing the (types) of pumps in use, the water circulation intervals.You name it. And everything was meticulously monitored, tracked and impacts measured.
(DIR) Post #AYQS4tYsEPs8sOBdSq by fetzert@econtwitter.net
2022-12-05T15:38:51Z
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The biggest shift was the upgrade to triple glazing. Installers wanted my dad to throw away the hand crafted wooden window frames. But with the help of a local carpenter he devised a way to beef up the frames to hold the weight. Eventually, as PV panel prices dropped and after finally, there was a subsidy package in place my dad had #PV #SolarPanels installed together with a cloud #batterystorage. Most #PV installations are carried out on south facing roofs, ours is East-West facing.
(DIR) Post #AYQS4vFnwHo67pHR1E by fetzert@econtwitter.net
2022-12-05T15:39:09Z
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Having East/West facing #PV panels actually has grid #stabilization benefits as it has a smoother electricity generation profile and the actual loss is just around 5% vis-a-vis what could be generated with a fully south facing installation.This was installed in 2021. After several years of "finding the optimal point" and there was also a subsidy involved that enabled the pairing with the cloud battery storage (from which my sisters now benefit via cheaper electricity).
(DIR) Post #AYQS4x4t9qGPmYBkHY by fetzert@econtwitter.net
2022-12-05T15:43:16Z
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The PV was a necessary condition for the #heatpump. This took a ton of planning. There are many nuances of how this is institutionally supported as every hole drilled provides information for neighbouring households with the risks being lower for every hole drilled. The risk of the drilling not working e.g. due to hitting a cave is insured btw.So a few weeks ago we finally started. Two 110 m holes had to be drilled. For every 1 unit energy input it is expected to yield 4 in return.
(DIR) Post #AYQS4yr8XwS5ITln7o by fetzert@econtwitter.net
2022-12-05T15:45:39Z
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Now after a lot of planning - the property is #CarbonNegative. My dad is actively sharing the story with others in the community. I asked him how much time and effort this took. Probably years. This is costly. Not everybody has the knowledge so its vital to share and benefit.The local press has covered the storyhttps://www.swp.de/lokales/ulm/weg-vom-oel-in-ulm-wie-vater-und-sohn-aus-lehr-die-energiewende-voranbringen-67913201.htmlYou can follow my research on the UK #Retrofitting #EnergyTransition #EnergyCrisis here:http://www.trfetzer.com/energy-crisis-research/