Posts by eberhofer@qoto.org
(DIR) Post #AUomeFjsoCDr9jDzbE by eberhofer@qoto.org
2023-04-19T18:26:23Z
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@KimPerales it's nice to see religious leaders who care about life and the community. Quite a contrast to the usual money-oriented bigotry. I hope to see more of them rise up and gain reach!
(DIR) Post #AUuJYOqkI5thx73DyC by eberhofer@qoto.org
2023-04-22T10:28:43Z
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@freemo aren't you moving the goal post a bit? I don't see anyone asking for making guns illegal, only to regulate them better. Seems sorely needed imho.Also, the data does support that the higher the number of guns in the population (above a certain threshold), the less secure things become for everyone. It's not even emotional.
(DIR) Post #AUuLza5inq9KXp926y by eberhofer@qoto.org
2023-04-22T10:56:01Z
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@freemo I'm basing my statement on findings by the American Psychological Association, e.g. published here. https://www.apa.org/pubs/reports/gun-violence-preventionIt's complicated and gun ownership level isn't the only factor - culture is arguably a bigger factor.
(DIR) Post #AUuN0zmWs77gSwPE5w by eberhofer@qoto.org
2023-04-22T11:07:30Z
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@freemo there's more research that supports the thesis. Here's one from Scientific American https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/more-guns-do-not-stop-more-crimes-evidence-shows/
(DIR) Post #AUuPW39caCTFoK8uCu by eberhofer@qoto.org
2023-04-22T11:35:01Z
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@freemo again, it's complicated and there are other factors involved. But no, I don't have to establish causation for my argument. It's sufficient to point to the correlation established consistently.The causation mechanisms are probably much more complicated, messy and themselves correlated to the gun ownership levels. Distrust in the government and social institutions, generally, is important for that.
(DIR) Post #AUuTrqxyyce6CNLoUi by eberhofer@qoto.org
2023-04-22T12:24:15Z
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@freemo I almost anticipated this response. I understand the dangers of spurious correlations.But it's just as dangerous to ignore consistently established correlation, unless you know why it can be dismissed. Particularly one, that can be shown to exist if the factor increases AND if it decreases, and that exists in what are arguably quite different setting.But I agree. Establishing cause is a much higher mark.I guess the question is how this should factor into policy decisions and I don't think I have to prove cause to let this guide my policy choice. In fact, given the detrimental impact of gun ownership levels to so many individuals, children and adults, I think the burden of proof should be on the advocates of easy access laws.
(DIR) Post #AUvK89Vb05bpxKANWK by eberhofer@qoto.org
2023-04-22T15:41:46Z
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@jayrosen_nyu why are they wondering whether some of the proposed policies might be "lawful"? It won't matter if he wins.They're still asleep!
(DIR) Post #AVNTEesDdfekz1nrW4 by eberhofer@qoto.org
2023-05-06T12:03:50Z
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@freemo @DeanObeidallah"Trump's level of success"? Surely you're joking. Trump totally screwed up annihilating all progress made by Obama.Maybe look at the chart in a slightly bigger window.
(DIR) Post #AVNUGJZZuAz3SCRCwS by eberhofer@qoto.org
2023-05-06T12:14:36Z
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@freemo @DeanObeidallah I'm suggesting job the growth under Trump is a result of Obama era policies and it slowed as soon as Trump took over.By the end of the mess that was his presidency, all of Obama's success in terms of job growth was annihilated.But yeah, the record did occur during his presidency - it took him some time to kill Obama's momentum.
(DIR) Post #AVNXd8STh7BXVPgqrw by eberhofer@qoto.org
2023-05-06T12:53:04Z
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@freemo @DeanObeidallah The chart shows a huge loss of employment during COVID-19, which isn't seen in Europe at all (not even close).And this is entirely due to (1) Trump's destructive policies prior to the arrival of COVID-19 combined with (2) the, shall we say, haphazard approach to the pandemic.And I agree with you: Trump's unprecedented efforts to influence the fed and solve things with QE, which Biden doesn't even seem to dream of, makes his record even worse. Trying to cover up policy blunders by stoking inflation.
(DIR) Post #AVNaUstnxWw2nNEHQG by eberhofer@qoto.org
2023-05-06T13:25:12Z
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@freemo @DeanObeidallah A few of things: please label your charts.Obama's policies led to job growth in the US which was followed by job growth in Europe with a lag of approximately 2-3 years. His policies were very effective and the reason for the continued job growth during the first 2-3 years after his presidency.Trump's policies left the US unprepared for a pandemic. His"success" was the record high on unemployment (14.7%). Yes, there was a quick recovery but, as you point out, this was achieved in a almost fraudulent way and nothing to be proud of.Europe did have better policies (aka "laws") than the US to deal with the pandemic. It served them well.
(DIR) Post #AVNfd6FwgIGwJEK2VM by eberhofer@qoto.org
2023-05-06T14:22:05Z
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@freemo @DeanObeidallah I argue from the data and my view of Obama is nuanced. But you made the claim that the job growth under Obama was a result of a good economy (rather than his policies) while under Trump a result of Trump's decisions. The data says the opposite. For all his faults, Obama appears as having successful and sustainable economic policies. And Trump appears NOT having had a successful policy at all, just inherited momentum and a moment of looking great due to base effect and QE (combined with threatening the FED, let's not forget).
(DIR) Post #AVNirnKnc6ZFpZI75k by eberhofer@qoto.org
2023-05-06T14:58:59Z
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@freemo @DeanObeidallah I agree with a lot of what you say now, but I would still maintain that the US recovery lead the European recovery by about two years after 2010. And I consider this lead meaningful as in consistent with Obama's policies helping create the good conditions.