Posts by chiclet@infosec.exchange
(DIR) Post #AaSoaYXf7rPheZ2k3k by chiclet@infosec.exchange
2023-10-05T15:17:10Z
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@realcaseyrollins @thatguyoverthere @Twiglet @Marbleturtle The economy isn't managed day-to-day by the president. Even the Fed, which has the most control, doesn't "run" the economy.The pandemic was the first real test.Prior to the pandemic, the economy was running just fine on its own momentum from the Obama era stimulus growth.Look at any chart about any economic growth metric over time. The economy was going up pretty steadily since it turned the corner from the Great recession.Unemployment was dropping and GDP was rising. All at the same steady pace since Obama.But presidents tend to take credit for long-term trends that preceded them. "Lowest unemployment of all time"? Or "highest ___ in modern history"?Yeah, absolute numbers are impressive but statistically misleading. You have to look at charts and trends, over long-term.The economy of a country like ours is huge. It's a freighter ship that takes years to turn. Yes, it's easy and much faster to scuttle. But takes years to make course corrections.
(DIR) Post #AaSru3wKued6OfZque by chiclet@infosec.exchange
2023-10-05T15:54:17Z
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@realcaseyrollins @thatguyoverthere @Twiglet @Marbleturtle True.Making it easier to lease cheaper land for drilling and reducing regulation to allow fracking in more areas, it's a great example of economic policy that takes years to show an impact.Just like incentives for electric vehicles and solar panels. Policies that take years, possibly even decades to have the desired effect.Lowering taxes, like a direct stimulus package, is a bit quicker. But the effects are also temporary.Remember that Trump tax cuts were designed to expire at a politically advantageous time. Both tax cuts and stimulus checks have contributed to the inflation we experienced this year.And again, inflation manifested years after the contributing factors were in put in motion.
(DIR) Post #AaT48VvAsIXQgQgufY by chiclet@infosec.exchange
2023-10-05T18:11:22Z
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@realcaseyrollins @thatguyoverthere @Twiglet @Marbleturtle Incentives for EV's shifts dependency from fossil fuel to electricity. Growing one market at the expense of another takes time.But the fossil fuel industry has enjoyed decades of incentives like tax breaks and low interest loans and land investments.The benefit comes when we can start reducing those subsidies, which are much higher over time than direct subsidies for green technologies.On the consumer side, people like me were fairly insulated from high gas prices because there were incentives to buy electric vehicles years ago. And this certainly increased my buying power even during inflation.For vehicle production, gasoline / diesel engines and multi-speed transmissions have been lucrative for those businesses who pay taxes. Yes I agree. That's why battery production must be equally local and lucrative. But again, it takes decades to build up a brand new industry. It's already started, but still will take time.As far as lower taxes contributing to inflation...That's pretty basic macro econ. Consumers having lower tax burdens increases their spending power with disposable income which they then put back into the economy. A sharp increase in consumer spending raises demand for all sorts of products and services and thus shifts the demand curves. Since lowering taxes is fairly instant, but supply increases could not move equally as fast, The prices will rise.That's why a stimulus check is very similar in effect to lower taxes.
(DIR) Post #AaTCRF9oE5OHpHyicC by chiclet@infosec.exchange
2023-10-05T19:44:23Z
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@realcaseyrollins @thatguyoverthere @Twiglet @Marbleturtle I don't understand how incentives for electric vehicles would cause people to buy natural gas vehicles.The EV transition could indeed take 20 more years, but positive effects can reach an inflection point much sooner. The acceleration in the last 5 years alone has been impressive.
(DIR) Post #AaTQUUb8fmCxwTCm9Y by chiclet@infosec.exchange
2023-10-05T22:21:51Z
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@realcaseyrollins @thatguyoverthere @Twiglet @Marbleturtle Oh, I thought you said natural gas which is a another alternative niche, slightly greener vehicle.It really depends on how the incentives are specified. Previous incentive schemes were not specific to domestic production. Things like rebates that allow for any automaker. But there are other incentives, like grants for domestic battery manufacturing.Similar to how Biden is trying to incentivize domestic production in the tech industries. These incentives for electric vehicles don't necessarily prioritize helping US businesses. The agenda for fixing climate change is much bigger than that. It certainly is not good for any economy to be spending billions of dollars on disaster recovery.Whether you live in hurricane areas, or affected by drought, there's exponentially growing costs to dealing with the fallout of the climate.It's only an extra added bonus if US businesses can profit from a brand new industry that can be developed.I too had preferred plug-in hybrid technology. That's what my car is. After driving it for years, I realize I don't really need the gas engine, and would have preferred full EV. I only visit gas stations now if I travel and rent a car somewhere. I can no longer get outraged about fluctuating gas prices. I have to hold my tongue to not tell everyone "I told you so". But it's true, gas prices surge for a variety of reasons once or twice a decade. Why people are so surprised and start blaming people, it's ridiculous. It's going to happen again and all I can say is, "transition to electric NOW so you don't have to worry about it".
(DIR) Post #AaTeA5sAI3iCpAKu6C by chiclet@infosec.exchange
2023-10-06T00:55:02Z
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@realcaseyrollins @thatguyoverthere @Twiglet @Marbleturtle Different people have different use cases of course. I think it's just common, like I did, to overestimate the need for long road trips.I simply don't drive as much as I used to. A lot of people also think roadside charging stations for road trips, are too slow. As if they would marathon driving 8 hours straight without a break. But in reality, the driver should need a 45-minute break every couple of hours when the battery gets depleted. I agree that subsidies should not continue once electric vehicle production reaches critical mass. I wished fossil fuel subsidies ended the same way but once power is entrenched, those lobbyists squat permanently.But that's just politics. The same way a Republican politician might lower taxes but there's always a well timed expiration so that when the opposing party takes over, they can get accused of raising taxes.So politicians are afraid to remove subsidies as well.I've done a lot of work studying the economics of fossil fuels versus electricity production. They are very different.The reason why gas prices are so volatile over the decades is a complex topic. Even when domestic production is at an all-time high, imports still affect prices greatly.Electricity production is an order of magnitude more diverse, which nearly eliminates a lot of the economic pitfalls which causes volatility in the market.Not just the price fixing, but since electricity can be made from many sources, it really isn't subject to such wild swings in price.And of course the ultimate consumer benefit with electricity, the ability to generate your own. For someone with their own property, it's possible to take care of water with a well, sewage with a septic system, grow your own food maybe, and generate your own electricity. But refining gasoline or diesel (I've tried biodiesel) is pretty much out of reach.The economics of refueling or recharging your car is also vastly different. I am only dependent on public services if I take road trips, which is rare.Imagine what it would be like if every home had a slow dripping faucet that produced gasoline. With the economics of a dense network of gas station really ever be profitable?
(DIR) Post #Ab6CdeGNvTZXD4YGh6 by chiclet@infosec.exchange
2023-10-24T15:20:22Z
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@realcaseyrollins I'm not sure, but aren't racketeering (RICO) cases actually super rare considering how few actual mob cases there were since the 1980s.I'd have to look back at the legal history of prosecuting crime families. But I seem to remember this being common for the prosecution of lower level criminals (Capos and below).The prosecutions real target is the highest level person, the crime boss.The racketeering charges are actually for the entire conspiracy. Everybody gets charged. That way, if for some reason the mob boss were to escape Justice, the highest level co-conspirator will take the biggest indictment.Prosecutors no it's also a huge incentive for the lower level criminals to turn on higher level ones. That's why they offer these super generous plea deals. Not because they suddenly realized they have a week case... But because they have a real target that does not include these lower level people.If the prosecution's case was really turning out to be weak, they would shift focus just to get convictions for the lower level guys, but then ignore the big fish.
(DIR) Post #Ab6EI4hv7uemlKGvDM by chiclet@infosec.exchange
2023-10-24T15:38:53Z
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@realcaseyrollins I'm not sure what you mean by RICO charges not having any standing?The plea deals from other defendants don't change the standing for charges for Trump.When a prosecutor offers a plea deal, that does not suggest to the Court that's the charges were somehow invalid.Sure, the defense might make that argument in the court of public opinion, which doesn't actually matter.Just like the argument that, "because other people have not been prosecuted for (what I see as) similar things, then it's selective prosecution".Prosecutors actually have broad discretion about whom they prosecute. Anyone willing to turn witness, gets a pass. That's the plea deal. And getting people to take that deal does not diminish the strength of the indictment.
(DIR) Post #Ab6GSZWDcrBV7rvpDc by chiclet@infosec.exchange
2023-10-24T16:03:11Z
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@realcaseyrollins That's not how racketeering trials actually go. It's not like law and order.Prosecutors are not really expecting for a witness to drop a bombshell confession or a direct accusation from a flipped witness. Michael Cohen is actually the only one that plays out like a TV trope witness.The prosecution's challenge is to get all the witnesses corroborating the same basic facts so that they are undeniable. The witness won't have to perjure themselves, and won't have to actually accuse Trump of anything.When a jury sees four people who have turned states witness, all corroborating and telling the same narrative. The prosecutor makes a convincing case that the facts are undisputable. So when the defense attempts to dispute the facts, it doesn't work for the jury.This case is a very, fact-based, case. It really doesn't depend on eyewitness testimony as a lynchpin.
(DIR) Post #Ab6IrfD1o0SNvG31hA by chiclet@infosec.exchange
2023-10-24T16:30:08Z
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@realcaseyrollins An important thing to know about all this... The prosecutors know exactly what the witness will say before the plea deal is offered. They are already deposed on camera before they sign.Being on the stand in front of the jury, is where they repeat what they've already said to the prosecutors.These defendants also have their own lawyers who have read, understood and agreed to the plea deal.And contrary to TV, if a witness understand where to rescind or divert from deposition testimony, they would be charged with perjury and lose their plea deal. Which is why it really doesn't happen in real life.But again, I would not expect bombshells, prejudice accusations or anything we don't already know. Just confirming and corroborating who said what, and when. And just confirming those facts is enough to convince a jury.
(DIR) Post #Ab8AWXs9TfKJlmccue by chiclet@infosec.exchange
2023-10-25T14:06:06Z
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@realcaseyrollins @BobApril "Kenneth doesn't believe that #Trump did what #FaniWillis is trying to nail him on"That's not how witnesses work.First, he is the prosecutor's witness, and his plea deal means he will testify. He will take the stand under direct examination of the prosecution and be cross-examined by the defense.Any decent lawyer for the prosecution will not simply ask, "is the defendent guilty?" or "do you believe he it?", and would object SPECULATION or CALL FOR SPECULATION before the defense counsel could even try to ask such a question.The judge will likely sustain such an objection, because witnesses testify to simple facts, not to things they cannot have direct knowledge of. And the jury would be told to disregard.Again, this is not a case hinging on witnessing the crimes being charged.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Donald_Trump_Indictment_in_Georgia.pdfLook at the charges. Cheseboro didn't directly witness the alleged crimes. The evidence is an extensive paper trail and the recording of a "perfect" phone call.Remember, as Mark said already, do not take "public statements of lawyers who are vigorously defending their clients in the media at face value".Scott Grubman is not trying to convince a Court, he's trying to convince the court of public opinion. It is not for the trial, it's to help the narrative of being unfairly persecuted. "look, even the prosecutor's witness believes he's innocent", is not something that works in court for racketeering cases. The whole point of RICO is that witnesses may have been coerced and intimidated.
(DIR) Post #Ab8Humbr2Ibq6aVHRg by chiclet@infosec.exchange
2023-10-25T15:28:54Z
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@realcaseyrollins @BobApril "the facts that he has knowledge of don't line up with #FaniWillis' narrative""what #ScottGrubman was angling at is that #FanisWillis is either misguided, rushed, or incompetent, and the plea deal doesn't really make sense from the prosecution's POV."I guess we will see in court. #FaniWillis has tried, and won several RICO cases before. It does not appear that Grubman has ever had a RICO case. But he does have a history of blustering.Remember, this whole 2020 election mess was spawned because these lawyers would say one thing in front of TV cameras, but did not dare make such claims in a court of law.
(DIR) Post #AcV01M0akBaHkET6lE by chiclet@infosec.exchange
2023-11-21T04:37:55Z
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@TruthSandwichYes, unfortunately there's a far left fringe that is trying to hijack the liberal left to the destruction of all.@LALegault @lavndrblue
(DIR) Post #AcV01iZmq0oDjl6Wfo by chiclet@infosec.exchange
2023-11-21T04:58:46Z
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@TruthSandwich@LALegault @lavndrblueIt's like they see what's happening to the GOP, and are like, "hold my beer".#uspol #populism
(DIR) Post #AdXiOsQRVXtOEiijTc by chiclet@infosec.exchange
2024-01-05T17:37:35Z
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@wjmaggosIt's amazing how Trump really thinks that's a compelling legal document. It wouldn't even pass in high school high school.It's just pages of bullet point claims. Many of them just citing the gateway pundit. Most of those claims were also thoroughly dismissed in court. About 60 cases if I remember.#Trump #JRE
(DIR) Post #AlKWlzMLonUW9vzU00 by chiclet@infosec.exchange
2024-08-25T15:52:55Z
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@gmcgathThere wasn't dishonesty in Walz. Just honest mistakes in communication. I'm surprised the AP is running this hit piece that gives deference to the 2 Republicans that were obviously more upset that Walz left to run as a Democrat politician. I know the National Guard. They have the reputation of being a club of "good ol boys". If he was Republican, they would have let it go without a word. Case in point, the hundred Republicans politicians using (ret) next to their names, when they haven't done 20 years, but rather just "separated".This article even gives Trump a pass by saying he denied denigrating service members (we all saw and heard him do it).There are MUCH better articles that dive deeper and set the record straight. With facts missing from this article. Such as The fact that retirement paperwork must have been submitted in late 2004 in order for it to be processed in time to retire in 2005. No one can retire at the drop of a hat. Which makes sense because he would just be getting back from a deployment at that time.The optempo during the surge into Iraq meant that nobody retired without being at least a year before another alert notice. Regarding the rank, he should have checked prior to calling himself a CSM. But he only mentioned it in 2006, probably a couple of months after the army had retroactively downgraded his rank for benefits purposes. And regarding carrying a weapon in war, yeah that was a misspeak and blunder. But being deployed overseas in support of a major global war and terror... They drill into you that you train as you fight, you are considered a warrior, when you carry a weapon for security or training you should behave like you're at war. Even if you're just doing security detail on a European base. #Walz #NationalGuard
(DIR) Post #AlYBN3uYNe2CDChURs by chiclet@infosec.exchange
2024-09-01T02:24:20Z
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@ionizedgirlIt's not just the Mastodon founder, there's an open feature request that I saw years ago.Read the description / motivation in this GitHub issue. It sounds like exactly the problem you are seeing.There are half a dozen forks of the original code, hopefully somebody will implement this. https://github.com/glitch-soc/mastodon/issues/1974@RL_Dane @ionizedgirl
(DIR) Post #Am4Eyw68OZ15u9aPYm by chiclet@infosec.exchange
2024-09-16T17:06:25Z
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@ryan@bemrose.social @wjmaggos Oh great, another fake anarchist "both sides" uniparty conspiracist. (but also likely Russian troll pretending to be to spread division)Block you, block your entire domain (just you).
(DIR) Post #Am4FQ58oseAplqmou8 by chiclet@infosec.exchange
2024-09-16T17:14:59Z
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@wjmaggos @ryan@bemrose.social I suggest using the ban hammer liberally.Propaganda isn't just about the posts you see, it's pretty clear from the history of this account (Feb 2024) and being an instance with only 4 users, plus the content of nonsense solely about the Democratic party... this particular user account is just the tip.I am not fooled by attempts to disguise as "civil conversation".
(DIR) Post #Am4GuR7NprJWZY9WdM by chiclet@infosec.exchange
2024-09-16T17:31:35Z
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@wjmaggos I understand that completely. That's the great thing about the fediverse, we can handle moderation according to our own standards.We all inevitably will end up in our own echo chambers and bubbles. I personally don't mind that, because I don't think social media is actually all that good for society or good for the free exchange of ideas. We can take what we want from social media, but under no obligation to listen.