Posts by SeanCasten@mastodon.social
(DIR) Post #B20iBLLfv1K8wIEKLg by SeanCasten@mastodon.social
2026-01-05T15:41:52Z
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4. The other side of that coin is price of course. One might need more production if supply is falling in the face of flat demand but that would necessarily lead to higher prices. We've not seen that since the global economy settled down from all the COVID supply distortions.
(DIR) Post #B20iBQ9o2ZnhqviQ2i by SeanCasten@mastodon.social
2026-01-05T15:47:02Z
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5. But let's give Trump the benefit of the doubt. He wants to flood the market with oil and drive price down farther and - as the US DOE has noted - Venezuela has the largest proven reserves in the Western Hemisphere... or do they? https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/VEN
(DIR) Post #B20iBVKcnmQRtvod6G by SeanCasten@mastodon.social
2026-01-05T15:49:33Z
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6. The key is that word "proven". When you first tap oil, you estimate how much is there. Then you map the geology to get a better estimate. Then you figure out how much is economically recoverable. Proven / probable / economically recoverable are different things.
(DIR) Post #B20iBZvHjQ7w8mzxnU by SeanCasten@mastodon.social
2026-01-05T15:51:51Z
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7. If you own the rights that field it is in your interest to overstate how much you can economically recover since you can borrow against that asset. Energy experts do their best to use accurate, apples:apples comparisons but given the incentives the data is never perfect.
(DIR) Post #B20iBezisLeDs074uO by SeanCasten@mastodon.social
2026-01-05T15:53:56Z
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7. So you know that Maduro guy? The bad guy who we shouldn't trust? Well he had a big say in moving a bunch of Venezuela's oil reserves from the "probable" to the "proven" category. https://x.com/RARohde/status/2007738396639465774?s=20
(DIR) Post #B20iBkAXdYGxv0DHxw by SeanCasten@mastodon.social
2026-01-05T15:58:14Z
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8. Venezuela is also in a really dire financial situation. Maduro had a strong incentive to cook the books. Any reasonable person should assume that he has significantly overstated Venezuelan assets, including but not limited to oil reserves. https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/2007872105669616055?s=20
(DIR) Post #B20iBpJaVLTnsVU5GC by SeanCasten@mastodon.social
2026-01-05T16:04:38Z
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9. But there's another problem. Venezuelan oil isn't very good oil. It's "heavy" and "sour" in industry parlance. Lots of tars & sulfur. Which means it takes a lot more work and money to convert it into low sulfur, lighter, more valuable products. https://x.com/Yellowbull11/status/2007505384429191617?s=20
(DIR) Post #B20iBuDOHoUf4jchnM by SeanCasten@mastodon.social
2026-01-05T16:10:49Z
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10. So the upshot is that Trump is trying to take control of an asset that is (a) likely overvalued (b) very expensive to process (c) is inside an economic basket case of a country (d) produces a commodity in a world with low prices and flat / falling demand.
(DIR) Post #B20iBz2aLPoy2fbe9A by SeanCasten@mastodon.social
2026-01-05T16:16:16Z
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11. Maybe there's some larger strategic play I'm missing. And I'm always leery to accuse someone of stupidity, if only because you never learn anything if you assume you're the smartest person in the room. But it's hard not to see this as a ready-fire-aim mistake with massive future costs.
(DIR) Post #B20iC4PoMUN2i9VlXk by SeanCasten@mastodon.social
2026-01-05T16:19:15Z
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12. So maybe the Occam's razor, simplest answer is what a friend and former senior DOE official from the Biden WH told me after Trump had filled out his new energy team:
(DIR) Post #B20iC9BSdGrXV5psMy by SeanCasten@mastodon.social
2026-01-05T16:19:44Z
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13. "My job, for the past 4 years was to talk to every expert in the energy industry, from academia to government to industry. And I never heard of most of these guys." /fin
(DIR) Post #B20iCDyAq6CmLKepqy by SeanCasten@mastodon.social
2026-01-05T16:25:42Z
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Postscript: thanks to all who have shared this picture, perfectly summarizing the prior 13 posts.
(DIR) Post #B23g0pfzsjeUQsn8uu by SeanCasten@mastodon.social
2026-01-07T20:40:43Z
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This is not a picture of someone engaged in self defense. Nor does it show someone carefully aiming their weapon so as to to disable a moving vehicle to facilitate an arrest. This is a federal agent choosing to murder.
(DIR) Post #B2C4PjI8i3VG2CiUC0 by SeanCasten@mastodon.social
2026-01-12T01:34:16Z
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I know Jay Powell and respect him. Even when we disagree on policy, he (a) understands that his voice has the power to move markets and (b) zealously defends the independence of the Fed. He is not a person who would make a statement like this lightly. Will say more shortly. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20260111a.htm
(DIR) Post #B2ICfC9pdLwQUDTYeW by SeanCasten@mastodon.social
2026-01-14T14:56:27Z
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As you read how Trump is treating and threatening the man who accused him of protecting pedophiles yesterday its worth re reading how he is alleged to have threatened a 13 yr old girl so she wouldn't expose his sins. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-threatened-to-kill-rape-accuser-if-she-reported-him-a7394846.html
(DIR) Post #B2YZ84dngkAupRZu3k by SeanCasten@mastodon.social
2026-01-22T20:07:30Z
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Congress, having the power of the purse, has an opportunity to respond to the murder and baseless arrests of American citizens, the cruel and inhumane conditions detainees are subjected to, and the denial of due process to both citizens and non-citizens. The Department of Homeland Security funding bill to be considered by the House today does not rein in the lawless conduct from ICE. The American people deserve better. I'm voting NO. https://casten.house.gov/media/press-releases/casten-to-vote-against-dhs-funding-bill-that-fails-to-rein-in-ice
(DIR) Post #B2g7HErpVhal14wnLM by SeanCasten@mastodon.social
2026-01-26T13:33:18Z
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Look, I'm glad we're having a conversation about the hypocrisy of the legal logic used by America's gun nuts. But can we stop pretending this is a new thing? They have never advocated for universal access to firearms. They only want their team to be armed. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/01/25/alex-pretti-gun-debate-second-amendment/
(DIR) Post #B2jM3XP7sIiNEyKH6e by SeanCasten@mastodon.social
2026-01-28T01:32:57Z
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As Republican Senators pitch the idea of having Trump issue executive orders to dial down ICE in exchange for funding DHS, let's all be very clear: AN EXECUTIVE ORDER IS NOT THE LAW. (1/x)
(DIR) Post #B2jM3YnGi1cXY8d4NM by SeanCasten@mastodon.social
2026-01-28T01:33:13Z
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It is obscene that any member of Congress is suggesting that we can EO our way out of murder. Pass laws to reform ICE or get out of your damn job to make way for people who understand Congress' role. But don't ask for Trump to fix the mess your cowardice created. . (2/2)
(DIR) Post #B2oZqQuF5rhATGKEro by SeanCasten@mastodon.social
2026-01-30T15:06:58Z
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Don Lemon was arrested because he’s a black man and Donald Trump is an easily distracted, racist demagogue with an ever shrinking number of non-pedophile friends who is incapable of decency but wants to change the subject. To spin this any other way is to lie.