Post AVNhDOf9p5O5m8zDrU by seth@s3th.me
(DIR) More posts by seth@s3th.me
(DIR) Post #AVNNerTon8SXsyV9VI by DeanObeidallah@masto.ai
2023-05-06T10:48:10Z
0 likes, 2 repeats
Example of how corporate media is hurting Pres Biden: On Friday, the April jobs report was released. Overall unemployment rate fell to 3.4% -the lowest since 1969. Black unemployment hit new record low. That should make headlines but instead media is ALL Trump.
(DIR) Post #AVNREZmuLbMVIn9UgK by freemo@qoto.org
2023-05-06T11:41:21Z
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@DeanObeidallah I mean the previous record holder for lowest unemployment rate was set by Trump, and Biden has just now surpassed it by a few fractions of a point. So even if we do talk about the unemployment rate, and how Biden was finally able to achieve Trump's level of success int hat regard, it would still have to invoke Trump to be fair in discussing that. Lets hope Biden can keep the numbers going the way they are.
(DIR) Post #AVNTEesDdfekz1nrW4 by eberhofer@qoto.org
2023-05-06T12:03:50Z
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@freemo @DeanObeidallah"Trump's level of success"? Surely you're joking. Trump totally screwed up annihilating all progress made by Obama.Maybe look at the chart in a slightly bigger window.
(DIR) Post #AVNTjPkhuPkn3xxI48 by freemo@qoto.org
2023-05-06T12:09:19Z
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@eberhofer Huh, what are you suggesting by the longer chart? Are you suggesting trump did not hit the record lowest unemployment since 1969 before Biden was able to match him?I guess you mean the huge spike the kicked in when the economy was shut down due to covid, which he managed to bring back down at a record rate?Dont get me wrong overall I think Trump was shit and I do **not** support him as president. But we cant deny the fact that he hit the lowest unemployment rate since 1969 which he continued to keep on a downward trajectory right up until COVID hit (at which point literally no one in any country was able to prevent an unemployment spike)@DeanObeidallah
(DIR) Post #AVNUGJZZuAz3SCRCwS by eberhofer@qoto.org
2023-05-06T12:14:36Z
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@freemo @DeanObeidallah I'm suggesting job the growth under Trump is a result of Obama era policies and it slowed as soon as Trump took over.By the end of the mess that was his presidency, all of Obama's success in terms of job growth was annihilated.But yeah, the record did occur during his presidency - it took him some time to kill Obama's momentum.
(DIR) Post #AVNVAvbjgCI3dKRUcC by freemo@qoto.org
2023-05-06T12:25:32Z
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@eberhofer @DeanObeidallah None of what you said actually lines up witht he data.1) For starters unemployment rate would have to be plotted as an inverse log plot if we want to fairly evaluate rate. the reason is obvious... if you have 100% unemployment it is much easier to bring that to 99% then it is to go from 1% to 0%... So even if nothing changes in terms of effects on unemployment we would have an asymptotic plot, not a linear one.So there is no slowing, outside of covid itself, and i see no inflection point suggesting there was a rate change when trump came on.2) Second once we admit that the huge spike due to covid and shutting down he economy (which everyone agreed on both sides was needed) can not be blamed on Trump (which should be evidence since the same pattern is seen, his downward rate was actually not slowed at all but reached record recovery rates... never in the history of recessions has jobs recovered so quickly as they did under trump. This is obvious fromthe chart, where Trump has the **sharpest** job recovery rate across the whole chart, and in fact, in history. The fact that this happened at the **end** of his presidency further debunks your assertions.3) The claim Obama is to praise for the long gradual downward sloap in unemployement and Trump just inherited it.... no thats easily debunked too. If we look at the european unemployment rates (or global) which I have attached, the shape of the curve that you attribute to obama is nearly identical tot he curve for europe. This suggests unemployment rates were recovering not due to anything special Obama did but rather due to an improvement in global economy that all countries shared. Contrast this with the recovery period after the covid spike which does in fact vary greatly from country to country and of which Trump, again, had a record recovery rate on unemployment ever seen.Now again I am not saying we should praise Trump. In fact I think he was horrible and these indicators above are due to actions Trump took that had good economic impact (very fast recovery from unemployment) in the short term, but at the cost of the long term.. the QE he engaged in to make that possible is also what is, partly, causing the high inflation we see now, so its fine to say that **despite** his impressive record on unemployment he did so at a cost that was more harmful than good overall... But even then we would be dishonest not to admit that in isolation the unemployment rates Trump was able to achieve were record breaking in both rate and in how low he managed to get those numbers.
(DIR) Post #AVNXd8STh7BXVPgqrw by eberhofer@qoto.org
2023-05-06T12:53:04Z
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@freemo @DeanObeidallah The chart shows a huge loss of employment during COVID-19, which isn't seen in Europe at all (not even close).And this is entirely due to (1) Trump's destructive policies prior to the arrival of COVID-19 combined with (2) the, shall we say, haphazard approach to the pandemic.And I agree with you: Trump's unprecedented efforts to influence the fed and solve things with QE, which Biden doesn't even seem to dream of, makes his record even worse. Trying to cover up policy blunders by stoking inflation.
(DIR) Post #AVNYHnBHhwMlO82DZY by freemo@qoto.org
2023-05-06T13:00:19Z
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@eberhofer @DeanObeidallah The chart shows a huge loss of employment during COVID-19, which isn’t seen in Europe at all (not even close).No there was a huge emploiyment recession in europe but because of laws instead of people getting fired they just lost hours… The mean hours worked per week per person in the EU dropped by an enourmous 18 hours during the economic shut down… very much in line with the unemployment rate in the USA, or at least when represented in hours lost. (see attached) And this is entirely due to (1) Trump’s destructive policies prior to the arrival of COVID-19 combined with (2) the, shall we say, haphazard approach to the pandemic.Wrong, as demonstrated the hit to people actually working in the workforce was approximately the same between europe and the USA. And I agree with you: Trump’s unprecedented efforts to influence the fed and solve things with QE, which Biden doesn’t even seem to dream of, makes his record even worse. Trying to cover up policy blunders by stoking inflation.Trumps record is horrific to anyone looking at the big picture for sure… but there is no doubt the unemployment rate was largely thanks to his decisions, its just that he caused a LOT of harm to get what is effectively a temporary and artificial unemployment rate… it may be real, he may have caused it, and it was even record breaking, all true and he gets the credit, but it was NOT a good thing when you consider how he got it and the long-term effects of what he did.
(DIR) Post #AVNaUstnxWw2nNEHQG by eberhofer@qoto.org
2023-05-06T13:25:12Z
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@freemo @DeanObeidallah A few of things: please label your charts.Obama's policies led to job growth in the US which was followed by job growth in Europe with a lag of approximately 2-3 years. His policies were very effective and the reason for the continued job growth during the first 2-3 years after his presidency.Trump's policies left the US unprepared for a pandemic. His"success" was the record high on unemployment (14.7%). Yes, there was a quick recovery but, as you point out, this was achieved in a almost fraudulent way and nothing to be proud of.Europe did have better policies (aka "laws") than the US to deal with the pandemic. It served them well.
(DIR) Post #AVNbCWuP51GvKqJy2i by freemo@qoto.org
2023-05-06T13:33:03Z
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@eberhofer No one is arguing whether Obama did well or not during his time in office. So I really wont even address the first part as it has no relevancy.Trumps policies, as I already showed from the govt published data, had equivelant loss of work hours (and pay) as the USA, so while Trump certainly did a poor job handling the pandemic in many ways, plain and simple unemployment absolutely wasnt one them as the data very clearly shows. Not to mention we know why... I get thatyyou want to hate Trump so much that you must blame 100% of bad metrics on him and 100% of good metrics on obama, but the reality is always more nuanced.We know quite well, and its obvious basedon the nature of QE what its effects are.. QE results in a huge spike in employment rate, and the value of companies spike,a nd even economies recover very quickly int he short term.. this is why anyone would ever bother with QE at all... We also know the long term result of QE is massive inflation rates over long periods of time and ultimately a loss of the value accumulated in the short term.Well thats what we saw, exactly what QE does, and it **is** trumps fault.. we saw the hugely accelerated spike in employment rates (record breaking even!) and no this isnt from obama who had at best a moderate employment rate increase, the rate was much much higher after trump initiated QE than obama ever reached. Also as expected we now see the tell tale long term inflation spike we are struggling to deal with.Yea trump is to blame for the unemployment rate, it was a record, but its hardly a good thing he did...@DeanObeidallah
(DIR) Post #AVNfd6FwgIGwJEK2VM by eberhofer@qoto.org
2023-05-06T14:22:05Z
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@freemo @DeanObeidallah I argue from the data and my view of Obama is nuanced. But you made the claim that the job growth under Obama was a result of a good economy (rather than his policies) while under Trump a result of Trump's decisions. The data says the opposite. For all his faults, Obama appears as having successful and sustainable economic policies. And Trump appears NOT having had a successful policy at all, just inherited momentum and a moment of looking great due to base effect and QE (combined with threatening the FED, let's not forget).
(DIR) Post #AVNgRxUr0aefuWXxzM by freemo@qoto.org
2023-05-06T14:31:04Z
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@eberhofer What im saying is when you look at these charts you have to normalize for the global trend to get a sense of how much of it is ourpolicies vs global economy... If you look at obamas trend it largely matches the shape of the global eveonomy with no delay. So you see obama still improving unemployment on his own, but only at a marginally higher rate thant he global background. Suggesting a normalized chart would have obamas rate much lower than a cursory glance at the chart might suggest.Likewise trumps rate post covid in terms of how fast unemployment dropped back to normal was record breaking itself and many orders of magnitude a higher rate of unemployment recovery than the global. suggesting Trumps unemployment rate of change was far greater than Obamas, since the original chart before normalization shows this and would be more pronounced post-normalization....But thats the weeds... as we said we KNOW Trumps QE would do just that, have insanely good very short term results on unemployment, so there is no disputing he beat out obama on that metric by leaps and bounds .. but again he poisoned the well to do it.And no one here is sayign Trump had a successful policy... he got the employment rate, legitimately super low and yes it was Trump that did that, not obama, but again, that isnt success.Its a bit like enacting slavery and then taking credit thast the unemployment rate is 0... welll it really is 0, so you cant argue that, but to take it as a win given the big picture, no it isnt.@DeanObeidallah
(DIR) Post #AVNhDOf9p5O5m8zDrU by seth@s3th.me
2023-05-06T14:39:55Z
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@DeanObeidallah such bullshit
(DIR) Post #AVNirnKnc6ZFpZI75k by eberhofer@qoto.org
2023-05-06T14:58:59Z
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@freemo @DeanObeidallah I agree with a lot of what you say now, but I would still maintain that the US recovery lead the European recovery by about two years after 2010. And I consider this lead meaningful as in consistent with Obama's policies helping create the good conditions.
(DIR) Post #AVNjDMFiz3vkD0CRIu by freemo@qoto.org
2023-05-06T15:02:50Z
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@eberhofer Well im not claiming obama did bad on unemployment, nor am i disagreeing with the fact that some of his success for the economy overall bled into the rest of the world. All Im saying is that when it comes tot he unemployment rate that Trump achieved, that was very much his doing, and only looks like a good thing on the surface, it was NOT a good choice. But bad as it was it did get him a legitimate record unemployment rate that was his doing.. he just screwed everyone over to get that number in other ways.... But it would be inaccurate to say that record number was due to obama is the point, it was due to Trump..@DeanObeidallah