Post 9t5qDFgKebrdDi9JyK by joaopinheiro@mastodon.social
(DIR) More posts by joaopinheiro@mastodon.social
(DIR) Post #9t5o2x5whlawln5hJo by Gina@fosstodon.org
2020-03-17T08:32:18Z
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Our prime minister gave a speech yesterday in which he emphasized that the gov listened to the experts and that the nationwide strategy in #theNetherlands is to aim for group immunity. This means that the young and strong should gradually be exposed to #Covid19, so that they can become immune to it. Once the herd is immune, the old and weak will automatically also be protected. "Just like with the measles."Interesting. I'm relieved to see our government advocate for a scientific approach.
(DIR) Post #9t5oVNwgT6jK9bJh9E by hostsharing@geno.social
2020-03-17T08:37:19Z
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@Gina China, Taiwan and some other asian states had an other strategy: Containment. We'll see which one is better.
(DIR) Post #9t5oZ5XSqXDcDzHnlo by Gina@fosstodon.org
2020-03-17T08:38:09Z
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Just to add: the emphasis is on *gradual* exposure as not to overwhelm the healthcare services.
(DIR) Post #9t5q2wWf1LReufi4gK by jamie@mastodon.ino.org.uk
2020-03-17T08:54:39Z
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@Gina The UK took a similar approach. It didn't go down too well here, but I could see the logic in it.
(DIR) Post #9t5q8gjkdVRfgMZYVk by joaopinheiro@mastodon.social
2020-03-17T08:55:41Z
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@GinaInteresting. The UK is advocating the same. The problem is that, in the meantime, no one knows how gradual is gradual and the elderly start dying as well as those not so old. That's what happened in Italy. And that scientific approach is only good until someone proves it wrong (or not). But, in this case, were really talking about people's lives... Well, I hope that they are right. But, so far, more people have already died in Holland than in Portugal. And I'm not happy with that. 😞
(DIR) Post #9t5qDFgKebrdDi9JyK by joaopinheiro@mastodon.social
2020-03-17T08:56:33Z
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@GinaI believe the result will be the opposite!
(DIR) Post #9t5qIj4UoLcXop3uCW by joaopinheiro@mastodon.social
2020-03-17T08:57:30Z
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@GinaBut, who am I? I'm just a teacher.
(DIR) Post #9t5qVzkm6DrFJzAHDs by Gina@fosstodon.org
2020-03-17T08:59:57Z
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@joaopinheiro In his speech the prime minister also laid out two other scenario's, namely to do nothing or to go into full lock-down for at least a year. The first obviously isn't an option, while the latter would cripple the economy. So the scenario of building herd immunity sounded most reasonable to them.
(DIR) Post #9t5rSMQLy6rwQeRZKq by joaopinheiro@mastodon.social
2020-03-17T09:10:29Z
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@GinaWell, to me they sound like someone who only sees things black or white. And their proposal looks like they are doing nothing right now. But I hope I they prove me wrong. I have a Dutch friend who happens to be a teacher and had to send 6 kids give in a day. I wonder how many more people got sick around them!
(DIR) Post #9t5rV5msHQIhhRHROy by Gina@fosstodon.org
2020-03-17T09:11:02Z
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@joaopinheiro It's a good thing then that all the schools have closed.
(DIR) Post #9t5rdntGBqGcncQAKG by joaopinheiro@mastodon.social
2020-03-17T09:12:30Z
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@GinaOh! Those are good news. When was it? Yesterday?
(DIR) Post #9t5roEUU93syC8o12G by joaopinheiro@mastodon.social
2020-03-17T09:14:27Z
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@GinaI talked to him Saturday and there were no such news.
(DIR) Post #9t5rqZMhVOobVzHLX6 by joaopinheiro@mastodon.social
2020-03-17T09:14:56Z
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@GinaIt's closed yesterday.
(DIR) Post #9t5rsTgdaYsOTzVvzU by joaopinheiro@mastodon.social
2020-03-17T09:15:14Z
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@GinaOurs closed yesterday.
(DIR) Post #9t6oBlquv8oAANkZg8 by bellew@fosstodon.org
2020-03-17T15:40:20Z
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@Gina: stop with herd immunity you need 60 to 70% of a population to get the disease. Currently, it kills about 4% of those infected. In a city of 10 million you would need 7 million infected, and 280,000 people dead. That is one city, there roughly 48 cities with pops from 5 to 10 million. Cut the dead count in half and 6.7 million would die in those cities (140k *48).Who is comformtable with those numbers? I'm not.
(DIR) Post #9t6oRSoPTpwTkN3oMC by Gina@fosstodon.org
2020-03-17T09:44:38Z
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Now the question is: what is gradual exposure? Should I not visit my parents the coming months? How will we know we have achieved herd immunity? How will I know I've had the virus if I show no symptoms? 🧐
(DIR) Post #9t6oRT0ojhroMqrihE by tfb@functional.cafe
2020-03-17T12:49:16Z
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@Gina Guessing at their age, your parents should be isolating themselves until the virus is not calmed down. If there are exploding numbers of new cases, no, do not visit them.
(DIR) Post #9t6ohVeufCYbD3GmC8 by kravietz@social.privacytools.io
2020-03-17T10:19:43Z
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@Gina It's "gradual" for healthcare system, not for individuals, so the answer would be essentially "whenever the hospitals local to your parents are not overwhelmed". The whole concept of herd immunity assumes that most people have already been through the infection and this is most likely happening already as many infections result in no symptoms.First rule of thumb: check your local healthcare announcements. Second: after infection rate in NL passes the peak.
(DIR) Post #9t6ohWA6nDVilnrgoq by stevenroose@x0f.org
2020-03-17T20:14:23Z
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@kravietz @Gina Also your hospital might not be overwhelmed now, but it can take 7 days until you have symptoms and that has proven to be a hell of a long time in Corona terms.
(DIR) Post #9t6pYlSgdilfZKwdZQ by Gina@fosstodon.org
2020-03-17T15:50:40Z
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@bellew what's the alternative?
(DIR) Post #9t6pczEZNP9RRQM3wO by nvsr@best-friends.chat
2020-03-17T17:42:52Z
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@Gina does gradual exposure cover me going to the supermarket to get snacks? If so I'm about to gradually expose myself.
(DIR) Post #9t6pu0MWR1NJrbBoJ6 by Ranunculus@social.tchncs.de
2020-03-17T10:25:26Z
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@Gina As far as I know there is no guaranteed immunity even if you had it already. So it is very difficult to say when's the right time to go visiting again.I would strongly recommend not to go, nobody dies from a couple skipped visits,. However from either corona or an overwhelmed healthcare system thats more likely.
(DIR) Post #9t6pu0X9nTskOaAIsq by Gina@fosstodon.org
2020-03-17T10:29:02Z
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@Ranunculus Yeah I'm not gonna go, but I wasn't at all surprised to learn that my moms' fucks given all went to cake distribution instead of a deadly pandemic.
(DIR) Post #9t6pu0jv225f2A8Um8 by Ranunculus@social.tchncs.de
2020-03-17T10:49:41Z
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@Gina what I found is that people do only worry about their own health and not so much what it means for healthcare personal if a pandemic is out of control...
(DIR) Post #9t6pu0smV5BBTeHZaa by Gina@fosstodon.org
2020-03-17T11:26:48Z
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@Ranunculus Cake distribution is serious business in my family.
(DIR) Post #9t6pu147ouFm2padGq by Ranunculus@social.tchncs.de
2020-03-17T13:08:42Z
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@Gina Koek en koffie, de stichting warop Nederland gebouwd is. 😜
(DIR) Post #9t6qMT5tCjnp57ywvQ by nvsr@best-friends.chat
2020-03-17T17:43:09Z
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@Gina This came out wrong but I'm not deleting it.
(DIR) Post #9t6qMTMCE6qXthbyLI by Gina@fosstodon.org
2020-03-17T17:54:34Z
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@nvsr 😂😂
(DIR) Post #9t6qPgIAagrssqG4C8 by neildarlow@fosstodon.org
2020-03-17T13:12:29Z
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@Gina We're following a similar approach here in the UK. Of course everyone opposed to our Prime Minister is promoting it as a lack of action from him.I think a pragmatic approach that protects the most at risk is the right strategy and we don't appear to be doing too badly.
(DIR) Post #9t6qWiUIpFdXijHudc by bellew@fosstodon.org
2020-03-17T15:59:38Z
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@Gina: doing what they are doing finding a vaccine. This is a coronavirus, the same family as the cold and influenza, we have vaccines for influenza, and we'll need one for this because it'll go dormat eventually and then come back.Read this: https://nautil.us/issue/83/intelligence/the-man-who-saw-the-pandemic-coming?utm_source=pocket-newtab
(DIR) Post #9t6uLrc8x9Aqen2HeC by alex@mytoot.de
2020-03-17T09:46:10Z
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@Gina I don't think the gradual exposure thing works in practice.Those exposed would need to be jailed for the time being infectous to contain the virus.
(DIR) Post #9t6uPOEI99DkgEYpNI by alex@mytoot.de
2020-03-17T09:49:35Z
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@Gina Also in Italy 50% of the severe cases are under 60 years old. You can't force the "young and strong" to risk their lifes..
(DIR) Post #9t6uR73gxVJs0LQNCy by Gina@fosstodon.org
2020-03-17T09:48:06Z
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@alex I think the thought behind it is that when you show symptoms you immediately self quarantine.
(DIR) Post #9t6ugVWkGdPSEiM2wS by basil@sarcasm.stream
2020-03-17T09:51:32Z
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@Gina I won't be visiting any family. (I may have to babysit my niblings) Parents and grandparents are a video chat only relationship until the summer at the very least.
(DIR) Post #9t6uwi3PSc65ilMJFI by datenteiler@fosstodon.org
2020-03-17T09:55:14Z
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@Gina If I understand it correctly, it's not certain at the moment that there really is a herd immunitay. Without a test I think you won't know if you have the virus if you are not showing symptoms.😷
(DIR) Post #9t6vNG8HNc16wWIRMG by joaopinheiro@mastodon.social
2020-03-17T09:48:54Z
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@GinaThat's really the problem.
(DIR) Post #9t6w1ur5ORCKpEdo3s by Gina@fosstodon.org
2020-03-17T10:08:42Z
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@datenteiler I just spoke to my mom. If I don't show up for my dads birthday then she will have too much cake and that is simply unacceptable. Seems like I have no choice 😅
(DIR) Post #9t6wNiU84AAYpYIYz2 by stevenroose@x0f.org
2020-03-17T14:23:39Z
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@Gina That's curious. It's the first country I hear taking this approach. Perhaps other countries will take similar approaches once the facts/science materialize on if herd immunity is possible and what a good gradual measure is?
(DIR) Post #9t6wQNMN470IBGwCIa by Gina@fosstodon.org
2020-03-17T10:09:01Z
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@datenteiler I just spoke to my mom. If I don't show up for my dads birthday then she will have bought too much cake and that is simply unacceptable. Seems like I have no choice 😅
(DIR) Post #9t6wisN4VM5jZb5S8O by alex@mytoot.de
2020-03-17T10:17:25Z
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@Gina Fair, this is what we are doing everywhere in the world right now.When I read "exposing", I think of intentional infecting someone.
(DIR) Post #9t6wxjcrImxgnGYZ6m by datenteiler@fosstodon.org
2020-03-17T10:16:15Z
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@Gina Unfortunately, these are all difficult decisions. I know. 😕
(DIR) Post #9t6x5UHCFqR5VN7Yci by rumblestiltskin@mastodon.technology
2020-03-17T14:27:36Z
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@stevenroose @Gina I think group immunity is just what will happen naturally. Every country understands that most people will get exposed eventually and this will bring group immunity. It seems the goal of many countries is to make sure people are exposed gradually so that the cases do not overwhelm the health system and cause the fatality rate to increase.
(DIR) Post #9t6xAqsvcjt14XKNWq by stevenroose@x0f.org
2020-03-17T14:30:09Z
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@rumblestiltskin @Gina Is does make sense to me to start thinking further than the next month of "everyone stay inside and don't move". Because that's not sustainable, socially nor economically. If your measures are too harsh and your number of cases start going down, fine, but once you lift your lockdown, they will go back up.I think right now countries like Spain and Portugal are trying to take too aggressive measures to get a hold of the situation and then think further. Which makes sense.
(DIR) Post #9t6zYXanCjJC60Gh4S by Tayo@fosstodon.org
2020-03-17T10:42:54Z
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@Gina I wish our CDC were taking this approach. The virus is with us now. We cannot get rid of it. What are we going to do? Shutdown the country every virus season?
(DIR) Post #9t70eHb1gt3uAygBXc by holly@social.v.st
2020-03-17T11:04:35Z
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@Gina @Ranunculus Yeah, I'm waiting to hear firm confirmation from the medical community that previous infection gives you immunity. It's true for most viruses, but not all (measles resets your immune system, for instance). Half of Dutch covid-19 ICU patients are under 50, and some countries are needing to ration care, choosing who lives and who dies because of healthcare system overwhelm. I'm not visiting anyone until the rate of new infections decreases every day for a week at least.
(DIR) Post #9t71sXyvfNTd0GE2D2 by chillja@metalhead.club
2020-03-17T11:06:06Z
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@Gina We've decided not to see my mother-in-law in person. We organised for her to get shopping (another older friend will go shopping with/for her), and anything else we need to physically exchange will be by drop-off at her door. We'll try to make up for it by calling and communicating more. But since by partner and I are both in a higher-risk situation, we feel that's unavoidable. On another note I hope that tests will eventually be available for all and also post-infection.
(DIR) Post #9t75SQFCDC3zIDdGNM by tapaniraja@mastodon.social
2020-03-17T11:51:20Z
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@Gina Yep, it's tough to know if you have it. As far as I understood young people in good shape won't always have symptoms. Even some symptoms can be the common cold, not corona.
(DIR) Post #9t7RIw2TLJKdzxYutE by frawi@chaos.social
2020-03-17T10:01:31Z
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@GinaImagine you set the temperature of your shower by writing a letter to your landlord which can only say "warmer" or "colder".With a one week incubation time it will be as easy to find the right level of gradual exposure.Now imagine there are dozens of people you have to choose to send the letter to. Some might do what you say up to some unknown threshold, some do nothing, and some might even do the opposite. We actually don't know how the different measures affect the infection rate.
(DIR) Post #9t7SeRqSNoOig9lR32 by Gina@fosstodon.org
2020-03-17T10:27:24Z
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@Ranunculus Yeah I'm not gonna go, but I wasn't at all surprised to learn that my moms' fucks given all go to cake distribution instead of a deadly pandemic.