Subj : 3 Day Space Weather Forecast
To   : All
From : Sean Dennis
Date : Thu Oct 22 2026 12:19 am

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Oct 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction 
Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 22-Oct 24 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 22-Oct 24 2026

             Oct 22       Oct 23       Oct 24
00-03UT       4.00         2.33         2.33         
03-06UT       3.67         2.00         2.00         
06-09UT       4.67 (G1)    1.67         1.67         
09-12UT       3.33         1.00         1.33         
12-15UT       2.67         1.33         3.00         
15-18UT       2.00         1.67         3.67         
18-21UT       2.33         2.00         4.33         
21-00UT       2.67         2.00         4.00         

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are expected early on 22
Oct due to CH HSS activity.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 22-Oct 24 2026

              Oct 22  Oct 23  Oct 24
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 22-Oct 24 2026

              Oct 22        Oct 23        Oct 24
R1-R2           20%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    5%            1%            1%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels through 24
Oct, with a slight chance (15-20%) for isolated M-class flares (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate).


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