Subj : 3 Day Space Weather Forecast
To   : All
From : Sean Dennis
Date : Tue Oct 13 2026 12:19 am

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Oct 13 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction 
Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 13-Oct 15 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 13-Oct 15 2026

             Oct 13       Oct 14       Oct 15
00-03UT       4.00         3.67         2.67     
03-06UT       4.67 (G1)    4.00         3.33     
06-09UT       5.00 (G1)    2.67         3.00     
09-12UT       4.33         3.67         2.33     
12-15UT       4.00         3.67         1.67     
15-18UT       3.67         3.67         1.00     
18-21UT       3.33         3.33         1.33     
21-00UT       2.67         2.67         2.33     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 13 Oct
due to CH HSS onset.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 13-Oct 15 2026

              Oct 13  Oct 14  Oct 15
S1 or greater    5%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 13-Oct 15 2026

              Oct 13        Oct 14        Oct 15
R1-R2           45%           40%           35%
R3 or greater   10%            5%            5%

Rationale: Solar activity is still expected to be at low levels through
15 Oct, with diminishing chances for M-class flares (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) and little chance for X-flare activity as Region 4549
decays and exits the disk.


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