Subj : 3 Day Space Weather Forecast
To   : All
From : Sean Dennis
Date : Sun Oct 04 2026 12:19 am

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Oct 04 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction 
Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 04-Oct 06 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 04-Oct 06 2026

             Oct 04       Oct 05       Oct 06
00-03UT       1.33         3.67         3.33     
03-06UT       1.67         4.67 (G1)    3.67     
06-09UT       1.67         4.33         3.33     
09-12UT       2.33         3.67         3.00     
12-15UT       3.00         2.67         2.33     
15-18UT       3.33         3.00         2.67     
18-21UT       3.33         2.33         2.67     
21-00UT       3.67         2.33         2.67     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 05 Oct due to the
influence of a coronal hole high-speed stream.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 04-Oct 06 2026

              Oct 04  Oct 05  Oct 06
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 04-Oct 06 2026

              Oct 04        Oct 05        Oct 06
R1-R2            5%            5%            5%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


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