Subj : 3 Day Space Weather Forecast
To   : All
From : Sean Dennis
Date : Thu Sep 24 2026 12:19 am

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Sep 24 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction 
Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 24-Sep 26 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 24-Sep 26 2026

             Sep 24       Sep 25       Sep 26
00-03UT       4.33         3.67         3.00     
03-06UT       5.00 (G1)    3.67         3.67     
06-09UT       4.67 (G1)    3.00         2.67     
09-12UT       3.33         2.67         2.00     
12-15UT       2.33         2.33         1.67     
15-18UT       2.33         3.00         2.33     
18-21UT       3.00         3.33         2.33     
21-00UT       3.33         3.00         2.67     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 24 Sep
due to CH HSS effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 24-Sep 26 2026

              Sep 24  Sep 25  Sep 26
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 24-Sep 26 2026

              Sep 24        Sep 25        Sep 26
R1-R2           20%           20%           20%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts through 26 Sep.


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