Subj : 3 Day Space Weather Forecast
To   : All
From : Sean Dennis
Date : Thu Aug 06 2026 12:19 am

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 06 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction 
Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 06-Aug 08 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 06-Aug 08 2026

             Aug 06       Aug 07       Aug 08
00-03UT       1.00         1.67         2.67     
03-06UT       1.33         1.67         2.00     
06-09UT       1.33         1.33         2.33     
09-12UT       1.00         1.33         2.67     
12-15UT       1.00         2.67         2.67     
15-18UT       1.00         3.33         2.00     
18-21UT       1.00         3.67         2.00     
21-00UT       1.33         3.33         2.33     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 06-Aug 08 2026

              Aug 06  Aug 07  Aug 08
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 06-Aug 08 2026

              Aug 06        Aug 07        Aug 08
R1-R2           15%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: With ongoing region decay and several active regions in the
western hemisphere expected to rotate off the disk over the coming days,
there is a decreasing chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares
over 06-08 Aug. Current Solar Orbiter HMI imagery suggests no
significant returning regions during the forecast period.


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