Subj : 3 Day Space Weather Forecast
To   : All
From : Sean Dennis
Date : Mon Aug 03 2026 12:19 am

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 03 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction 
Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 03-Aug 05 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 03-Aug 05 2026

             Aug 03       Aug 04       Aug 05
00-03UT       4.00         3.00         1.33     
03-06UT       4.67 (G1)    3.33         1.67     
06-09UT       4.00         3.00         1.67     
09-12UT       4.00         2.33         1.67     
12-15UT       3.00         2.00         1.33     
15-18UT       3.00         2.00         1.33     
18-21UT       3.00         1.67         1.00     
21-00UT       2.67         1.33         1.67     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on 03 Aug as the
CME ongoing effects persist. No G1 or greater geomagnetic storms are
expected on 04-05 Aug, as no further transient or recurrent solar wind
significant features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 03-Aug 05 2026

              Aug 03  Aug 04  Aug 05
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 03-Aug 05 2026

              Aug 03        Aug 04        Aug 05
R1-R2           20%           20%           20%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
on 03-05 Aug due to the flare potential of the active regions currently
located on the visible solar disk.


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