Subj : 3 Day Space Weather Forecast
To   : All
From : Sean Dennis
Date : Fri Jul 10 2026 12:19 am

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Jul 10 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction 
Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 10-Jul 12 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 10-Jul 12 2026

             Jul 10       Jul 11       Jul 12
00-03UT       3.67         3.67         2.33     
03-06UT       2.67         2.00         2.00     
06-09UT       2.67         2.00         2.00     
09-12UT       2.67         2.67         2.00     
12-15UT       2.67         2.67         2.00     
15-18UT       2.67         2.67         2.00     
18-21UT       3.67         2.67         2.00     
21-00UT       2.67         3.00         2.33     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 10-Jul 12 2026

              Jul 10  Jul 11  Jul 12
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 09 2026 0227 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 10-Jul 12 2026

              Jul 10        Jul 11        Jul 12
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) and a slight
chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackouts on 10-12 Jul.


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