Subj : 3 Day Space Weather Forecast
To   : All
From : Sean Dennis
Date : Sat May 23 2026 12:19 am

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 May 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction 
Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 23-May 25 2026 is 2.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 23-May 25 2026

             May 23       May 24       May 25
00-03UT       2.33         1.67         1.67     
03-06UT       2.67         1.67         1.33     
06-09UT       2.33         1.33         1.33     
09-12UT       1.67         1.33         1.33     
12-15UT       1.67         1.33         1.67     
15-18UT       2.00         1.33         1.33     
18-21UT       2.33         1.33         1.67     
21-00UT       2.33         1.67         1.33     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-19 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 23-May 25 2026

              May 23  May 24  May 25
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 22 2026 1029 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 23-May 25 2026

              May 23        May 24        May 25
R1-R2           25%           25%           25%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 23-25 May.


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