Subj : 3 Day Space Weather Forecast
To   : All
From : Sean Dennis
Date : Sat Feb 28 2026 12:19 am

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Feb 28 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction 
Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 28-Mar 02 2026 is 4.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 28-Mar 02 2026

             Feb 28       Mar 01       Mar 02
00-03UT       3.00         3.33         3.33     
03-06UT       2.67         4.33         3.67     
06-09UT       1.67         4.00         3.00     
09-12UT       1.67         3.00         2.67     
12-15UT       1.33         2.67         3.00     
15-18UT       1.00         2.67         3.00     
18-21UT       2.67         3.00         3.33     
21-00UT       3.33         3.00         3.00     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 28-Mar 02 2026

              Feb 28  Mar 01  Mar 02
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 28-Mar 02 2026

              Feb 28        Mar 01        Mar 02
R1-R2           25%           25%           25%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There exists a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts over 28 Feb - 02 Mar.


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