Subj : 3 Day Space Weather Forecast
To   : All
From : Sean Dennis
Date : Thu Feb 19 2026 12:19 am

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Feb 19 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction 
Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 19-Feb 21 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 19-Feb 21 2026

             Feb 19       Feb 20       Feb 21
00-03UT       3.33         3.00         2.33     
03-06UT       3.67         3.00         1.67     
06-09UT       2.00         2.33         1.33     
09-12UT       2.33         1.33         0.67     
12-15UT       2.33         1.33         1.00     
15-18UT       2.00         1.67         0.67     
18-21UT       3.00         2.00         1.33     
21-00UT       3.67         3.00         2.00     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 19-Feb 21 2026

              Feb 19  Feb 20  Feb 21
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 19-Feb 21 2026

              Feb 19        Feb 20        Feb 21
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight
chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 21 Feb.


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