Subj : 3 Day Space Weather Forecast
To   : All
From : Sean Dennis
Date : Mon Feb 16 2026 12:19 am

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Feb 16 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction 
Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 16-Feb 18 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 16-Feb 18 2026

             Feb 16       Feb 17       Feb 18
00-03UT       4.67 (G1)    3.67         2.67     
03-06UT       4.33         3.67         2.67     
06-09UT       3.67         2.67         2.67     
09-12UT       3.33         2.67         2.00     
12-15UT       2.33         2.00         2.00     
15-18UT       2.67         1.67         0.67     
18-21UT       2.67         1.67         2.33     
21-00UT       3.33         2.67         3.00     

Rationale: Isolated periods of G1 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming
are likely on 16 Feb due to positive polarity CH HSS influences with
potential weak CME enhancements as a CME from 13 Feb might pass in close
proximity.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 16-Feb 18 2026

              Feb 16  Feb 17  Feb 18
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 16-Feb 18 2026

              Feb 16        Feb 17        Feb 18
R1-R2            5%            5%            5%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


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