Subj : 3 Day Space Weather Forecast
To   : All
From : Sean Dennis
Date : Fri Feb 13 2026 12:19 am

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Feb 13 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction 
Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 13-Feb 15 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 13-Feb 15 2026

             Feb 13       Feb 14       Feb 15
00-03UT       1.67         3.00         3.67     
03-06UT       1.33         2.67         2.67     
06-09UT       1.33         2.00         2.67     
09-12UT       1.33         2.67         2.33     
12-15UT       1.33         2.00         2.33     
15-18UT       1.33         2.67         2.33     
18-21UT       1.67         2.67         4.67 (G1)
21-00UT       1.67         3.00         5.00 (G1)

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 15 Feb due to
combined potential from a recurrent coronal hole and a passing coronal
mass ejection.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 13-Feb 15 2026

              Feb 13  Feb 14  Feb 15
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Feb 12 2026 0240 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 13-Feb 15 2026

              Feb 13        Feb 14        Feb 15
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There exists a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor) radio
blackouts over 13-15 Feb due to the flare potential of multiple active
regions on the Suns visible disk.


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