Subj : 3 Day Space Weather Forecast
To   : All
From : Sean Dennis
Date : Sat Feb 07 2026 12:19 am

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Feb 07 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction 
Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 07-Feb 09 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 07-Feb 09 2026

             Feb 07       Feb 08       Feb 09
00-03UT       4.00         4.67 (G1)    3.33     
03-06UT       2.67         3.67         2.00     
06-09UT       1.67         3.33         2.00     
09-12UT       1.67         3.33         3.00     
12-15UT       2.33         2.00         3.00     
15-18UT       2.67         3.33         3.33     
18-21UT       3.33         3.33         3.67     
21-00UT       4.00         3.67         3.67     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 08 Feb due to the
anticipated arrival of the CME associated with the 03 Feb filament
eruption, coupled with a new negative polarity CH HSS.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 07-Feb 09 2026

              Feb 07  Feb 08  Feb 09
S1 or greater   25%     25%     25%

Rationale: There is a chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms on
07-09 Feb due to the magnetic complexity and dynamic of the active
regions on the visible disk.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 07-Feb 09 2026

              Feb 07        Feb 08        Feb 09
R1-R2           80%           80%           80%
R3 or greater   35%           35%           35%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
chance for R3 (Strong) or greater levels on 07-09 Feb due to the
magnetic complexity and dynamic of the active regions on the visible
disk.


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