Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Wed Oct 22 2025 09:21:02

ACUS01 KWNS 221251
SWODY1
SPC AC 221250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The severe weather risk appears negligible through tonight.

....Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a pronounced upper trough/low
over the Northeast and southeast Canada, while another similar
feature moves ashore the CA coast today.  In the low levels, a front
will push northeast through New England today.  A several hour
window of opportunity will exist for low-topped thunderstorms to
develop ahead of the front across southern New England.  The 12 UTC
OKX raob only showed around 200 J/kg MUCAPE in proximity to where
weak convection has developed this morning.  Model forecast
soundings vary regarding the magnitude of instability (i.e., scant
to weak) across southern New England this morning, casting some
uncertainty on storm intensity.  The scenario of a negligible risk
for severe from weak/shallow convection appears most probable with
this activity before it pushes east of the coast.  Farther west over
CA and the Desert Southwest, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will intermittently occur as a lobe of ascent and adequate PW
facilitate the development of storms through early evening.

...Smith/Bentley.. 10/22/2025

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