Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Thu Oct 16 2025 19:54:47

ACUS01 KWNS 170044
SWODY1
SPC AC 170042

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible this evening across
parts of the central High Plains.

....Central High Plains...
A conditionally favorable severe-thunderstorm environment remains in
place this evening across a narrow zone from far east-central CO
into northwest KS and southwest NE, generally to the east-northeast
of a surface low across eastern CO, and along/south of a
southward-sagging cold front. Within this zone, MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg and effective shear of 50+ kt is supporting supercell
potential, though the longevity of the remaining threat will be
limited by nocturnally increasing MLCINH. The threat for isolated
severe hail/wind and perhaps a brief tornado may persist until
around 02-03 UTC. See MCD 2149 for more information.

...Dean.. 10/17/2025

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