Subj : OUTLOOK: Nws National Hur
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Fri Aug 22 2025 13:07:24

ABNT20 KNHC 221751
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Southwestern Atlantic (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of
organization in association with a trough of low pressure located
about 250 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of
this system, and a tropical storm is very likely to form this
weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward over the
southwestern Atlantic.  Interests in Bermuda should monitor the
progress of this system as watches or warnings could be required on
Saturday.  For additional information, including gale warnings,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about midway between Africa and the Windward Islands remain
disorganized.  While there is still some chance that a short-lived
tropical depression could form during the next day or so, the system
is expected to move through a less conducive environment into
Saturday.  The wave could reach a slightly more favorable
environment late this weekend into early next week as it approaches
the Windward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Blake
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