Subj : Severe Threat TN/AL
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Fri Sep 05 2025 18:05:11

ACUS11 KWNS 052300
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052259=20
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-060100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2037
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0559 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025

Areas affected...Middle TN and far north AL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 606...

Valid 052259Z - 060100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 606
continues.

SUMMARY...A more concentrated swath of strong to localized severe
gusts is possible with potential for a slow-moving cluster to
accelerate across mainly southern Middle Tennessee through
mid-evening.

DISCUSSION...The deepest convective cores have persisted over the
past couple hours across southwest TN. These have congealed into an
initially slow-moving cluster into southern Middle TN with forward
motion of only 15-20 kts. But with strengthening of the surface
temperature gradient, from upper 60s in the emerging cold pool to
85-90 F persisting ahead of the outflow, a more concentrated swath
of strong to localized severe gusts may evolve over the next 2-3
hours. This would be coincident with probable acceleration of the
cold pool that yields more moderate westerly storm motions into
mid-evening. This might eventually approach the southeastern edge of
WW 606 and necessitate a local areal extension. Weak low-level
west-southwesterlies evident in area VWP data does lower confidence
on just how robust the damaging wind threat may become.

...Grams/Mosier.. 09/05/2025

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35808757 36028694 36128610 36018547 35588533 35228532
            34868547 34708578 34638702 34658780 34668835 34978833
            35428779 35808757=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

$$
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