Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Tue Sep 09 2025 08:11:22

ACUS01 KWNS 091238
SWODY1
SPC AC 091236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible over the central and southern
High Plains late this afternoon and evening.

....Central/Southern High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery shows an upper ridge situated over the Rockies
in between a deep-layer cyclone over OR/northern CA and a series of
low amplitude impulses moving east over the mid and lower MO Valley.
The upper ridge will gradually shift into the High Plains tonight
while a lee trough is the notable low-level feature.  A moist axis
evident in 12 UTC regional raob data at 850 mb (e.g., Del Rio, TX,
Dodge City, KS) and surface observations, will destabilize via
strong heating and result in 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by mid-late afternoon.

Model guidance continues to indicate isolated to widely scattered
storms developing late this afternoon into the early evening.
Forecast soundings suggest either multicellular or marginal
supercell potential.  The steep (8-9 deg C/km) low to mid
tropospheric lapse rates will support the risk for isolated severe
gusts with the stronger cores and outflow surges.  As a 35-kt
southerly LLJ develops during the evening, one or two clusters may
evolve and gradually move east during the evening, with perhaps a
continued isolated risk for hail/wind into the late evening before
this activity weakens late.

...Smith/Broyles.. 09/09/2025

$$
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