Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Wed Sep 24 2025 08:55:26 ACUS01 KWNS 241231 SWODY1 SPC AC 241230 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY TO SOUTH TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may generate isolated damaging wind gusts today from parts of the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to south Texas. ....Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to South Texas... A positively tilted mid-level trough/low extending from the Great Lakes to southern Plains will translate slowly eastward today while gradually amplifying. At the surface, a cold front will continue tracking south-southeastward across the southern Plains and lower/mid MS Valley through the period, with a weak low forecast to gradually develop towards the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes by late tonight. Ongoing convection across north-central TX and the southern AR vicinity has remained mostly sub-severe early this morning, with the TX thunderstorms post-frontal and likely somewhat elevated. The activity across southern AR is being aided by a modest southwesterly low-level jet, and ascent preceding a mid-level shortwave trough with attendant 40-50 kt westerly jet over OK. Current expectations are for gradual destabilization to occur along/south of the front through this afternoon, with filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass aiding in the development of weak to moderate instability. Lapse rates aloft are forecast to remain generally poor, which may tend to limit updraft strength to some extent. Still, enhanced mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear associated with the shortwave trough should aid in updraft organization, with multicell clusters anticipated to develop and spread eastward across much of the lower MS Valley and Mid-South/TN Valley this afternoon and evening. Areas along/north of the ongoing convection in southern AR may struggle to destabilize, with only weak instability forecast by most guidance. Even so, the stronger mid-level flow/shear attendant to the shortwave trough may foster occasional damaging winds if stronger convection can be sustained. Locations south/east of the thunderstorms this morning will likely realize greater instability as diurnal heating occurs, but will remain mostly displaced from the stronger mid-level flow. This suggests convection will probably tend to be less organized with southward extent, especially into coastal/south TX. But, isolated severe/damaging winds may still occur as low-level lapse rates steepen though the day. ...Gleason/Grams.. 09/24/2025 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1) .