Subj : Delta Division News To : All From : Daryl Stout Date : Fri Jan 10 2020 13:53:13 Good Morning Delta Members! We have a chance for a rare, widespread severe weather outbreak in January later this evening and into the weekend and our services may be needed by our local served agencies. This in part from the National Weather Service is stating that a significant severe weather event is possible across the Delta Division this evening through Saturday and into Sunday as a strong cold front drags its way across our four states/sections. Scattered showers ad thunderstorms will be followed by a significant heavy rain and possible severe weather event tonight and through Saturday in AR, LA, MS and parts of TN. Eastern TN and Northern AR appear not to be in as high a risk circle as the more southern parts of the Division. The Gulf moisture and warm air will certainly play into any development with this system. Please check the NWS forecast for the particulars in your locale as some areas may see lesser effects from this front. The National Weather Service states in part: A large storm system approaching from the Southern Plains will be responsible for the active pattern. Thunderstorms will begin developing in eastern Oklahoma and eastern Texas by late this afternoon, and will remain in place through the evening awaiting the arrival of the system. Once the system nears, a line of storms will kick to the east and move through Arkansas and Louisiana tonight and into Mississippi and Tennessee through Saturday and into Sunday AM. The incoming line of storms will likely bring an outbreak of severe weather to the region. The main concern will be damaging winds (hurricane force or higher in places), and there may be tornadoes as well. Ahead of the line, some data is indicating scattered thunderstorms in southwest Arkansas and northwest Louisiana this evening. This will be monitored very closely, as storms such as these will have the potential to produce tornadoes. Storms overnight will produce torrential downpours. Two to more than three inches of rain is expected to dump in much of the area. Given that vegetation is dormant and not consuming much ground water, downpours will runoff quickly, and this will increase the flash flood potential. This event will also feature windy conditions. South to southeast winds at 10 to 20 mph today will increase to 20 to 30 mph tonight before shifting to the northwest. Gusts could reach 40 mph in portions of eastern Arkansas and into parts Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee. Precipitation will gradually taper off on Saturday as colder air filters into Arkansas. Lingering light rain will change to light snow in the Ozark Mountains of the northwest. Some spots could pick up a half inch to an inch of snow, mainly on grassy areas. Roads will remain wet, with icy patches possible Saturday night as temperatures drop below freezing. Please note this as of this email, there was a moderate risk of severe weather over roughly the southern half of Arkansas and extending southward into Louisiana. It's not very often that risks of this magnitude are posted for the area, especially covering such a large area. This is serious. Please be safe and be ready to find appropriate shelter if severe weather warnings are issued for your area. Again, please check your NWS forecast for the particulars in any given locale. SM's and SEC's please prepare your ARES teams for any related activations or needs in your states. I know most of you already have started your preparations. We are in contact with the Emergency Preparedness Department at ARRL HQ and they have reached out to the Red Cross and our other partner agencies regarding the potential situation in the area. Please let Ed or know if there is anything we can do for you. We are on standby if we need to implement the Delta Division MOU if required by any Section/State. For more information, please contact your Section Manager, as they and the SEC will be managing the event. Remember, Hams save lives, but let's not lose any performing our duties; please be safe! 73 ES GL DE K5UZ DE WB4RHQ -------------------------------------------------------------------- ARRL Delta Division Director: David A Norris, K5UZ k5uz@arrl.org -------------------------------------------------------------------- --- SBBSecho 3.10-Win32 * Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - tbolt.synchro.net (454:1/33) .