Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfa
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Mon Oct 20 2025 08:39:35

FOUS30 KWBC 200742
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 20 2025 - 12Z Tue Oct 21 2025

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS INTERIOR
NEW ENGLAND...

Anomalous PW (1.5-2.5 standard deviations above the mean) and 
850-700 mb moisture flux(3-5 standard deviations above the mean) 
values will accompany the strong cold/occluded frontal boundary 
that will sweep northeastward through New England Monday. Hi res
models all show an uptick in hourly rainfall amounts along and
ahead of this front beginning shortly after 1200 UTC. Both the HREF
and RRFS neighborhood probabilities are high for hourly totals in
the .50-1" range as the front sweeps northeastward on Monday. 
Concerns continue for isolated runoff issues where the anomalous 
850-700 mb moisture flux will produce strong upslope flow across 
much of VT, NH and into western ME. Across these areas both the
HREF and RRFS neighborhood probabilities are high for 2"+ total
amounts during day 1. Overall, only some minor changes made to the
previous marginal risk area.  

Oravec

Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 21 2025 - 12Z Wed Oct 22 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Oravec

Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 22 2025 - 12Z Thu Oct 23 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Oravec

$$
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