Subj : HVYSNOW: Probabilistic He
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Thu Oct 16 2025 08:31:58

FOUS11 KWBC 160618
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
218 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Valid 12Z Thu Oct 16 2025 - 12Z Sun Oct 19 2025

....North-Central Rockies...
Day 1...

Upper low over southwestern Wyoming this morning will continue to
track northeastward into southeastern Montana by 00Z/17. Snow
levels will be around 7000-8000ft over the region. Light to modest
snow will continue over the Uintas and Absarokas/Wind River
Range/Bighorns this morning before ending late this afternoon into
the evening/overnight from southwest to northeast as the system
moves into the Northern Plains. WPC probabilities for at least
another 6 inches of snow after 12Z this morning are 20-50%.


....Northern Rockies...
Day 2...

Shortwave out of western Canada will slip southeastward across the
Northern Rockies Friday evening into Saturday morning, spreading
light snow across Glacier NP, southwestern
MT/Yellowstone/Absarokas, and into the Bighorns. WPC probabilities
for at least another 4 inches of snow are low (10%).

....Pacific Northwest...
Day 3...

Pacific upper low will push into southwestern Canada with a strong
130kt jet from southwest to northeast slowly sinking into the
region. Snow levels will be quite high through 00Z Sun
(6500-10,000ft across WA) but then start to crash through 12Z Sun
(end of the period) to around 5000-6000ft over the WA Cascades. WPC
probabilities for at least 6 inches of snow are low (10-40%) over
the higher peaks of the Cascades through 12Z Sun.


The probability of significant freezing rain across CONUS is less
than 10 percent.

Fracasso

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