Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Tue Oct 14 2025 08:12:26

ACUS01 KWNS 141232
SWODY1
SPC AC 141230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible across parts New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon
and evening. An isolated threat for gusty winds and perhaps a brief
tornado will gradually diminish through midday for portions of
coastal southern California.

....New Mexico and Far West Texas...
Enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will persist today across the
Southwest, as upper ridging is maintained over the southern
Plains/lower MS Valley and as an upper trough/low progresses inland
over CA and the Great Basin. A fetch of low/mid-level moisture will
continue streaming northward from northern Mexico into parts of the
Southwest and southern Rockies through the period. Large-scale
forcing will remain nebulous across these areas, but orographic lift
and filtered daytime heating should encourage isolated to scattered
convective development across parts of NM this afternoon. With
moderate to strong deep-layer shear and weak instability expected,
the stronger updrafts may acquire some organization and marginal
supercell characteristics. Isolated hail and gusty winds appear
possible with this activity as it spreads generally northeastward
through the early evening before weakening.

....Coastal Southern California...
A low-topped line of convective showers will continue to advance
east-southeastward this morning across parts of coastal southern CA
as an upper trough/low advances inland over central CA. Strong
mid-level westerly flow will accompany this convective line, and
locally gusty winds remain possible for a few more hours this
morning. However, meager instability will likely continue to hinder
the overall severe threat.

...Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/14/2025

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