Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Mon Oct 13 2025 08:43:03 ACUS01 KWNS 131237 SWODY1 SPC AC 131236 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA...AND THE SOUTHWEST INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind may occur from the Four Corners region and eastern Arizona to far west Texas this afternoon and evening. Locally damaging winds appear possible mainly tonight along parts of south-central coastal California. ....Coastal California... An upper trough/low over the coastal Pacific Northwest this morning will dig southward along the CA Coast through tonight. An attendant strong mid-level jet will round the base of this trough and overspread parts of coastal south-central CA this evening into early Tuesday morning. Strong forcing for ascent with this jet should support low-topped convection along/ahead of a surface cold front. Even though low-level moisture and related instability are expected to remain quite limited with poor lapse rates present, strong flow aloft may still support gusty to locally severe/damaging winds as convection spreads east-southeastward along parts of the CA Coast late this evening and overnight. ....Southwest into Far West Texas... Between the upper trough/low over the West Coast and upper ridging centered over much of the Plains, a fetch of low/mid-level moisture with tropical origins will persist today over parts of the Southwest. Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, but diurnal heating should gradually destabilize the airmass this afternoon, with scattered to numerous convection forecast to once again initially develop over the higher terrain of AZ into the Four Corners region. Strong deep-layer shear may support some updraft organization, with isolated hail and gusty winds possible with the more robust cores. A somewhat separate corridor of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms may develop northeastward late this afternoon and evening off the higher terrain of north-central Mexico into portions of far west TX. ...Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/13/2025 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: ILink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:3/105) .