Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sun Oct 12 2025 08:34:04

ACUS01 KWNS 121201
SWODY1
SPC AC 121200

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of southern/central Arizona, with marginally severe hail and gusty
winds the main threats.

....Southern/Central Arizona...
A shortwave trough will continue ejecting northeastward across the
northern Plains today, as large-scale upper troughing persists over
much of the western CONUS. A reservoir of greater low-level moisture
will remain confined to parts of southern/central AZ, where mid 60s
to lower 70s surface dewpoints are present across lower elevations.
Even though mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain fairly
modest, around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop this afternoon
with filtered daytime heating. Weak low-level winds will strengthen
with height at mid/upper-levels, supporting around 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear. While large-scale ascent is forecast to remain
fairly nebulous, most guidance still suggests scattered to numerous
thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across this region and
spread generally east-northeastward through the early evening. With
favorable shear in place for some updraft organization, some of
these thunderstorms could pose an isolated threat for marginally
severe hail and/or gusty winds.

...Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/12/2025

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