Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Wed Sep 10 2025 08:03:04

ACUS01 KWNS 101247
SWODY1
SPC AC 101245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over parts of the
Northwest and northern Rockies with more isolated storms over the
High Plains. Severe potential is generally low.

....Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper low situated over
northern CA, and it will remain nearly stationary during the period
with a large area of cyclonic flow extending from southern CA into
the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies.  A downstream upper
ridge over the High Plains will feature a lee trough that will act
to focus isolated to scattered thunderstorms from MT southward into
the central High Plains.

Strong heating and weak upslope flow beneath the aforementioned
upper-level ridge will favor a few isolated cells developing during
peak heating.  A couple of the more vigorous storms may be capable
of localized strong gusts near 1) NM/OK/TX/CO border, 2) east of the
CO Front Range in the High Plains, and 3) in eastern WY. Warming
aloft is expected to mitigate the overall potential with these
storms.  Farther west, a mid-level shortwave trough will move
through the base of the West Coast mid- to upper low/trough and to
near the UT/NV border by late afternoon/early evening.  A
corresponding belt of 50-kt southwesterly 500-mb flow will
overspread western UT.  Isolated dry microbursts may accompany the
stronger storms over central UT into western CO during the 22-02z period.

Elsewhere, scattered afternoon storms will occur beneath the upper
trough from northern NV into OR and western ID, and a few of these
storms could produce at least small hail given such cool
temperatures aloft and modest deep-layer shear.

...Smith/Broyles.. 09/10/2025

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