Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Mon Jun 30 2025 07:43:00

ACUS02 KWNS 300558
SWODY2
SPC AC 300556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An
isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High
Plains.

....Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will traverse from the Great Lakes to the
Northeast on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will move from
the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to the Appalachians during the day and
eventually into the Atlantic by the late evening.

....Carolinas to the Northeast...
A very moist airmass will be in place ahead of the cold front on
Tuesday. Moderate instability is expected to develop across the
region as the boundary layer warms during the afternoon. Mid-level
flow will only be around 20 knots across southern Virginia into the
Carolinas. Therefore, while a few stronger storms may result in
damaging wind gusts, overall storm organization is expected to be
limited. From northern Virginia into the Northeast, stronger
mid-level flow (40 to 45 knots) will support greater storm
organization. The best overlap between the sufficient shear and
greatest instability will be across northern Virginia into eastern
Pennsylvania and New Jersey. A very moist profile will support
water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind producing
microbursts. A more organized linear segment will likely result in a
greater severe weather threat in the Mid-Atlantic region.

A conditionally greater severe weather threat is possible farther
northeast across Vermont/New Hampshire and vicinity. If 1500+ J/kg
MLCAPE can develop across this region, more substantial severe
weather is possible given the stronger shear and closer proximity to
the surface low across southeast Canada.

...Bentley.. 06/30/2025

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