Subj : Severe Threat IN/MI/OH
To   : ALL
From : Mike Powell
Date : Wed Jun 18 2025 15:22:00

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 181938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181938
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-182145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1349
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Areas affected...northern IN...southern Lower MI...northwest OH

Concerning...Tornado Watch 434...

Valid 181938Z - 182145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 434 continues.

SUMMARY...Northern, fast-moving portion of a QLCS should progress
across the rest of northern Indiana into southern Lower Michigan and
northwest Ohio through early evening. Damaging winds should be the
main threat, but a tornado or two will be possible. Downstream watch
issuance expected by 21Z.

DISCUSSION...The northern portion of a QLCS has been steadily
progressing east around 45 kts with a history of estimated to
measured gusts of 55-70 mph. This fast-moving portion of the line
has likely outpaced stronger low-level shear across southwest IN,
per comparison of VWX and IWX VWP data. Given largely veered surface
winds downstream and recent HRRR guidance, an outflow-dominated line
will likely persist as it spreads into southern Lower MI and
northwest OH through early evening. Damaging winds should remain the
primary hazard, with a tornado or two possible in any QLCS
mesovortices across northern IN.

...Grams/Hart.. 06/18/2025

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON   41438716 42068643 42278562 42548465 42568444 42448344
            42278321 42078305 41478296 40828313 40348367 40258443
            40108597 40368656 40568658 40888648 41438716

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

$$
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