Subj : Severe Potential OK/TX
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sun Jun 08 2025 14:14:00

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 081827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081827 
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-082030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1200
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 081827Z - 082030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large to very large hail, damaging
wind, and tornadoes likely this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows increasing cu along a
stationary front located across northern OK into southwestern KS.
MLCIN remains in place across much of the OK/TX panhandles, however,
with temperatures warming into the mid 80s this is beginning to
weaken particularly on the northern and western fringes. Even with
morning elevated convection, a pronounced gradient of MLCAPE is
setting up along the panhandles to the Red River on the OK/TX border.

Initial mode will likely be supercelluar, with potential for large
to very large (some 3-4"+) hail, damaging wind (some 70+ mph), and a
couple of tornadoes. VAD profiles from LUB and AMA depict low level
curvature of hodographs indicative of favorable low level shear to
support a tornado threat. Though cells may have the propensity to
cluster, strong deep layer shear and mesoscale storm interactions
will likely allow for some embedded tornado threat to persist even
with a shift in storm mode. A watch will be needed to cover this
threat in the coming hours.

...Thornton/Guyer.. 06/08/2025

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34940274 35680294 36300304 37030286 37090228 37120169
            37020135 36880095 36700062 36430010 35919989 35159985
            34929985 33770026 33220048 33100146 33090183 33250235
            33460256 33780258 34940274 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN

$$
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