Subj : Heavy Rain/Flooding TX/OK
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sun Jun 08 2025 14:14:00

AWUS01 KWNH 081807
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-090005-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0403
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
206 PM EDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...TX/OK Panhandles into Northwest TX and Southwest OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081805Z - 090005Z

SUMMARY...Organizing supercell thunderstorms by mid-afternoon and
gradual consolidation into a severe MCS by this evening may result
in some scattered concerns for flash flooding where the cells to
merge or locally train.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E GeoColor satellite imagery shows
strong diurnal heating over the southern High Plains which is
already favoring MLCAPE values as high as 2000 to 3000+ J/kg. A
capping inversion which still remains in place will continue to
steadily erode via additional surface heating over the next few hours.

This will set the stage for well-organized and heavy showers and
thunderstorms to develop near and to the south of a cold front
dropping south toward the southern Plains, and also near and north
of a retreating warm front situated farther south over western and
northern TX. Already a northwest/southeast axis of elevated
thunderstorms has developed over the last couple of hours over
northwest TX given steep mid-level lapse rates.

A highly sheared environment exists with effective bulk shear
values of 30 to 50 kts in place, and these magnitudes are forecast
to slowly increase through the afternoon hours. The combination of
this and strong boundary layer instability will favor developing
and expanding coverage of supercell thunderstorms by mid-afternoon.

Aside from well-defined severe hazards, there will be a heavy
rainfall component to the supercells considering the degree of low
to mid-level moisture that is in place. The latest CIRA-ALPW data
shows relatively enhanced moisture profiles from the surface up
through the 700 mb level, and so many of the supercell
thunderstorms will be capable of highly efficient rainfall rates
that could reach 2 inches/hour.

By early this evening, merging/consolidating supercell
thunderstorms should lead the way for a severe MCS, but as this
process occurs, there will be sufficient concerns for cell-mergers
and cell-training such that some rainfall totals reach 2 to 4+ inches.

This may result in concerns for scattered areas of flash flooding
which will include some localized urban impacts.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   36960058 36509954 35759881 35019838 34079832 
            33409886 33490002 34210078 34820146 35690220 
            36250233 36830196 

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