Subj : Severe Potential GA SC NC
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sun Jun 08 2025 10:12:00

ACUS11 KWNS 081410
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081409 
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-081615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1195
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0909 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...portions of southeast GA...central and coastal
SC...and southeast NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 081409Z - 081615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm intensity and coverage will gradually
increase into midday and early afternoon from southeast Georgia into
southeast North Carolina. Locally strong/damaging gusts will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing this
morning across portions of the SC Midlands into central Georgia
along outflow from overnight convection. While overall weakening has
occurred during the diurnal minimum that past few hours, these
outflow and ongoing convection will continue to move into an
unstable and very moist downstream airmass over the next few hours. 

Moderate to strong instability is already in place across southern
GA into coastal SC, with some further destabilization expected with
time into far southeast NC. Vertical shear will remain modest,
around 20-30 kt effective shear magnitudes. But this, along with a
modest 850 mb low-level jet, will be sufficient for storm
organization. Steepening low-level lapse rates are expected with
additional heating, with midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km are
evident in RAP forecast soundings and the 12z CHS RAOB. This should
support isolated strong/damaging gusts and perhaps sporadic hail
into the afternoon.

Timing of greater storm coverage/intensification is a bit uncertain,
but trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance toward midday.

...Leitman/Guyer.. 06/08/2025

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...
TAE...

LAT...LON   32568330 34158185 34757978 34867898 34857843 34787812
            34387763 34157760 33727774 31678037 31098133 31178238
            31418312 31778341 32228353 32568330 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

$$
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