Subj : DAY1 4/5 RISK AREA POSTED
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sun Jun 08 2025 10:11:00

ACUS01 KWNS 081208
SWODY1
SPC AC 081207

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0707 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

....THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO GEORGIA....

....SUMMARY...
A severe weather outbreak is possible across the southern Plains
today. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and
giant hail up to 5 inches in diameter are likely. Strong gusts, and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are also possible along portions of
the East Coast.

....OK/TX...
Broad west-northwesterly flow is present today across the
central/southern Plains states, with a surface cold front sagging
southward across KS.  Ahead of the front, a very moist
boundary-layer air mass is in place across much of OK and TX, with
dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s.  Strong daytime heating
and near dry-adiabatic low/mid-level lapse rates will yield a large
reservoir of extremely high CAPE values across western OK and
northwest TX.

Rapid development of intense thunderstorms will ensue by mid/late
afternoon along the cold front over northwest OK and along a complex
dryline structure over the eastern TX Panhandle.  Strong deep layer
shear will favor supercells, despite rather weak low-level winds.
Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be
possible as these storms track southeastward across western/central
OK and congeal into one or more bowing segments.  Recent CAM
solutions suggest pockets of deep boundary-layer mixing, with some
areas heating into the mid 90s while dewpoints drop into the 50s.
If this scenario develops, significant wind and hail would remain a
concern, but the overall risk of tornadoes would be reduced.

The risk of widespread destructive winds will increase through the
evening as the convective complex tracks into northwest and
north-central TX.  The activity make remain intense as far east as
northern/central LA tonight.

....Central/North TX early afternoon...
A cluster of strong thunderstorms is ongoing this morning between
ABI and LBB.  Other isolated cells are forming in eastern NM north
of TCC.  Given the very unstable environment, any one of these
clusters of storms could potentially persist through the day and
track southeastward into parts of central TX.  Large hail and
damaging winds would be the main concerns.

....Mid Atlantic Region...
A shortwave trough currently over OH will track eastward today, with
large-scale ascent overspreading the Mid-Atlantic states by
afternoon.  A moist surface air mass is present across much of
VA/MD/NC and vicinity with dewpoints in the upper 60s.  Persistent
clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization.
However, it appears likely that storms will develop off the Blue
Ridge by mid afternoon and spread eastward toward the coast.
Forecast soundings show sufficient low and deep layer shear for
supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
few tornadoes.

....GA/SC...
A large MCS has persisted overnight across parts of AL/GA, with a
few strong storms along its leading edge.  Given a few hours of
daytime heating, these storms may pose a risk of damaging wind gusts
as they spread eastward toward the coast.

...Hart/Bentley.. 06/08/2025

$$
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