Subj : DAY2 2/5 Risk Area Posted To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Sun Jun 08 2025 10:11:00 ACUS02 KWNS 080549 SWODY2 SPC AC 080547 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and isolated severe hail are possible across the Southeast into the Upper Ohio Valley on Monday into Monday evening. ....Southeast... Below-average confidence exists for this forecast with large spread across D2 guidance in the handling of an early-morning MCS and attendant MCV in the MS vicinity, amid modest background wind fields outside of the MCV influence. Most guidance indicates convection should intensify towards midday, along and downstream of the large-scale outflow as the boundary layer destabilizes across the Deep South. Some guidance indicates convection may redevelop behind it and become the primary corridor for damaging winds during the afternoon. For now, have maintained a broad level 2-SLGT risk for scattered damaging winds to the South Atlantic Coast. ....Upper OH Valley... A belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies ahead of an upper Great Lakes vertically stacked cyclone should generally remain along to the cool side of a weak cold front shifting east. Most guidance has trended up with the degree of boundary-layer heating ahead of the front, which will be required to boost buoyancy amid marginal mid-level lapse rates. A corridor of primarily scattered damaging winds, along with a tornado and isolated severe hail, may develop amid modest MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg. With a confined buoyancy plume, convection should weaken as it spreads towards the northern Appalachians on Monday evening. ....NM/TX... An intense and large MCS on Sunday should drive a composite outflow/cold front into central/south TX, with a meridional arc over central to western NM. Scattered to numerous afternoon storms will probably remain tied to the higher terrain of northern/central NM with an isolated severe hail/wind threat amid marginal deep-layer shear. Isolated storms are also possible near the front from the southern Trans-Pecos through southeast TX with a severe hail/wind threat. Isolated elevated convection may form with weak low-level warm theta-e advection north of the front on Monday evening/night. Sufficient effective bulk shear and elevated buoyancy may exist for a few storms capable of severe hail. ...Grams.. 06/08/2025 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: ILink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:3/105) .