Subj : DAY2 2/5 Risk Area Posted To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Thu Jun 05 2025 07:22:00 ACUS02 KWNS 050553 SWODY2 SPC AC 050551 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High Plains to the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday into Friday night. Damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are the main hazards. Large to very large hail is possible over the southern High Plains. ....Southern Great/High Plains... A large MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday from the Ozark Plateau to the OK/TX Red River Valley. Large-scale outflow will trail in the wake of this MCS and modify to the north of it as diurnal heating ensues. Along and south of the boundary, a confined plume of moderate to large buoyancy is expected by late afternoon with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. North of it, more modest values are anticipated between the outflow and a quasi-stationary front. Scattered thunderstorms will once again develop along and to the cool side of the front over the Raton Mesa into south-central CO, with more isolated expected southward along the dryline to the Trans-Pecos. A belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies, with strengthening of upper-level flow, is anticipated south of a shortwave impulse moving into the central High to Great Plains through Friday night. This setup should yield favorable hodograph elongation for a sustained, long-lived supercell or two evolving southeastward from southeast CO. While buoyancy will be more muted, it should be sufficient for a significant severe hail and brief tornado threat. A few supercells farther south may have a tendency to be more outflow-dominant per various CAM depictions, but will likewise contain sig-severe hail potential as well. The Raton Mesa vicinity convection should grow upscale into another MCS Friday night as storm-scale outflows consolidate and with strengthening of the southern High Plains low-level jet. Most guidance indicates a somewhat delayed/slightly weaker jet than on D1. This coupled with signals for negative low-level theta-e advection overnight, given the confined plume of rich low-level moisture along the prior outflow boundary, lowers confidence in highlighting greater coverage of both severe and sig severe wind with the MCS as it likely tracks into/across OK. ....Mid-South to the TN/Lower OH Valleys... A large MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday from the Ozark Plateau to the OK/TX Red River Valley. This MCS should weaken somewhat in the late morning, but then intensify by midday and persist through the afternoon. A moderately unstable airmass will develop ahead of it from the Deep South into at least southern KY with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg common. Deep-layer shear should remain modest with southern extent, where multicell clusters will dominate. Closer to the parent MCV, enhanced 700-mb westerlies will be present and should compensate for weaker destabilization. While isolated severe hail is possible, mainly within renewed updrafts along the large-scale outflow and redevelopment on the backside of the MCV, scattered damaging wind swaths should be the main hazard from KY to northern parts of MS/AL/GA. ...Grams.. 06/05/2025 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: ILink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:3/105) .