Subj : DAY1 2/5 Risk Area Posted To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Thu Jun 05 2025 07:22:00 ACUS01 KWNS 050549 SWODY1 SPC AC 050547 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the High Plains from southwestern Kansas into west Texas. A few tornadoes, large to isolated very large hail, and severe gusts are possible. ....Central/Southern High Plains... Large-scale pattern is not forecast to change appreciably during the day1 period as broad upper ridging holds across northeast Mexico into the lower MS Valley. Along the northern periphery of this feature, a few weak disturbances are forecast to translate across the southwestern U.S. into the southern/central High Plains region. Each of these features should encourage potentially robust, deep convection. Early this morning, a notable MCS has evolved over the TX Panhandle. This complex has been partly aided by a low-amplitude short-wave trough that will translate into eastern KS/OK later today. While this convection is currently well-organized, with time this activity should gradually weaken downstream over western OK/northwest TX. Of potential concern will be the influence on boundary-layer stability and the position of convective outflow boundaries. If the MCS continues as currently anticipated, a possible demarcation in buoyancy may extend across the TX South Plains into far eastern NM by peak heating. Remnant outflow will likely serve as the focus for robust convection later this afternoon as temperatures warm into the mid 80s-lower 90s, west and south of the outflow. Forecast soundings along this corridor exhibit strong deep-layer shear and substantial 0-3km SRH. Supercells should develop across the southern High Plains and very large hail may accompany these robust updrafts. Additionally, profiles appear favorable for tornadoes, especially if the aforementioned convective outflow maintains some identity. A secondary area of potential convective concentration will be across southeast CO into southwest KS. Models suggest strong boundary-layer heating will develop across northeast NM into the western OK Panhandle, just south of a secondary weak frontal zone that should drape itself across this region. Supercells should easily develop along this boundary then possibly grow upscale into a larger complex of storms as it spreads downstream along the KS/OK border after sunset. All hazards are possible with this activity, but any tornado threat will likely be concentrated with more isolated supercells early in the convective evolution. ....Elsewhere... High-PW plume currently stretches across the lower MS Valley-OH Valley-lower Great Lakes-southeast Canada. Scattered convection will readily develop along this corridor, juxtaposed along a weak frontal zone. Poor lapse rates should limit updraft strength, but some risk for an isolated severe wind gust does exist. ...Darrow/Wendt.. 06/05/2025 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: ILink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:3/105) .