Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Tue Jun 03 2025 09:01:00 ACUS02 KWNS 030544 SWODY2 SPC AC 030543 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN MIDWEST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and wind are possible from mid-afternoon Wednesday through early morning Thursday in parts of the Southwest. Isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail may occur across the eastern Midwest from mid-afternoon to evening. ....NM to southern CO and west TX... A lower-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough will accelerate from the Lower CO Valley, shifting across the southern Rockies onto the south-central High Plains by 12Z Thursday. Widespread thunderstorm coverage is likely Wednesday afternoon ahead of this trough, centered on the Four Corners region. Despite weak buoyancy owing to a surface ridge at 12Z Wednesday across the southern High Plains, a belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies to the east-southeast of the trough should yield a few weak supercells. These should be focused across northern NM into southern CO during the mid-afternoon to early evening. A lone supercell may also develop over the Trans-Pecos. Isolated severe hail/wind may occur. Low-level moisture return and attendant MUCAPE will increase Wednesday night across west TX into far eastern NM. With strengthening large-scale ascent as the shortwave trough approaches, regenerative thunderstorm development is anticipated. Strong effective bulk shear may foster a corridor of early-morning supercells with a primary hazard of isolated large hail. South of this corridor, capping will probably inhibit sustained storm development. Confidence in reliably highlighting a mesoscale corridor is too low to warrant a categorical upgrade. ...IL to OH/lower MI... Enhanced mid-level southwesterlies initially present over the central Great Lakes at 12Z Wednesday will become confined to ON/QC as a low-amplitude shortwave trough dampens. Trailing to the south of this, a residual belt of at least moderate 700-500 mb winds will persist into Wednesday afternoon, along and ahead of a weakening/stalling cold front. While mid-level lapse rates will remain weak and limit buoyancy, sufficient boundary-layer heating will exist for scattered thunderstorms. Marginally severe hail will be possible with initial cells, but clusters should dominate given the nearly parallel orientation of the front/shear vector. Sporadic strong gusts capable of isolated damaging winds may persist into the early/mid-evening, before convection wanes after dusk. ...Grams.. 06/03/2025 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: ILink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:3/105) .