Subj : Heavy Rain/Flooding FL
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Mon Jun 02 2025 07:25:00

AWUS01 KWNH 021025
FFGMPD
FLZ000-021500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0344
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
624 AM EDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Areas affected...central west coast of FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021023Z - 021500Z

Summary...Localized/urban flash flooding will be possible along
the west coast of FL, from roughly Tampa Bay to Naples through
about 15Z. Spotty 3 to 5+ inch totals will be possible, with much
of that potentially falling within a 1 to 2 hour window.

Discussion...Regional radar and infrared satellite imagery at 10Z
showed a west-east axis of thunderstorms extending from the
eastern Gulf through the central FL Peninsula, located out ahead
of a mid-level shortwave approaching from the central Gulf Coast.
This region of FL was located within a low level confluent axis
along a stationary front that extended from just south of Cape
Canaveral to just south of Tampa Bay. While convergent 925-850 mb
winds were fairly weak (up to ~10 kt), the environment over the
central Peninsula contained 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, 1.5 to 1.8
inches of PW and estimated wet bulb zero heights just over 12 kft
(via SPC mesoanalysis and RAP data), capable of efficient rainfall
production. Several rain gauge reports near the coast between
Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor have shown rainfall rates near 1
inch in 15 minutes with 1-2 inch totals reported as of 10Z.

Mean westerly flow and low dewpoint depressions at the surface
will promote occasional instances of west-east training with
minimal outflow generation over the next few hours, until daytime
heating begins to alter the boundary layer and the continued
approach of the upstream shortwave affects low level wind
direction/speed, interfering with the convergence axis. Until that
happens (~14 to 15Z), an isolated threat for flash flooding will
occur within the urban corridor of the western Peninsula from
roughly Tampa Bay to Naples, where localized potential for 3-5
inches of rain will exist.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   27798182 27628129 27308135 27058175 26438155 
            26208202 26548254 27228294 27578280 27728248 
            
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