Subj : DAY2 2/5 Risk Area Posted To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Mon Jun 02 2025 07:25:00 ACUS02 KWNS 020541 SWODY2 SPC AC 020539 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to mid-evening Tuesday. A couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ....Synopsis... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest. This process will aid in strengthening mid-level southwesterlies across the northern part of the warm-moist sector, roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. Weak cyclogenesis should be induced along the WI portion of a progressive cold front. Trailing portion of this front will push southeast in OK/TX as a surface ridge builds south into the southern High Plains. ....TX Big Country to the Ozarks... More pronounced boundary-layer heating is likely to occur with southern extent across this portion of the warm sector characterized by rich low-level moisture. A warm mid-level thermal profile should yield modest lapse rates and support largely moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg on Tuesday afternoon. But this portion of the warm sector front will have a more westerly wind profile in the mid/upper-levels, supportive of initial slow-moving supercells. Widespread afternoon thunderstorms are expected from southeast KS through western OK, with isolated to scattered storms into north TX during the evening. Upscale growth into clusters and eventual linear segments is likely, especially as composite outflows serve as the effective cold front. Initial large hail with a tornado or two, transitioning to more of a damaging wind threat is anticipated. The severe threat should diminish as it shifts south/east Monday night. ....Mid-MS Valley to southern/eastern WI... A strong and broad low-level jet on Monday will aid in rich moisture return ahead of the surface front into at least WI by Tuesday. Areas of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z within the attendant warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime. Mid-level lapse rates will be poor to weak, owing to both preceding convection and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that appreciable boundary-layer heating may be displaced east and south of the rich moisture plume. As such, confidence is below-average regarding the northeast extent of the level 2-SLGT risk. But given the presence of seasonably strong 700-mb southwesterlies, some damaging wind threat remains apparent to at least the Mid-MS Valley with late-afternoon/early-evening scattered storms. ...Grams.. 06/02/2025 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: ILink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:3/105) .